Unfortunate...

Sales

Sale 1: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198314211872#!/compare/1595376000/1596067200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198991107875#!/compare/1573171200/1596153600

Sale 2: 4 keys traced

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1597276800/1597363200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163792512#!/compare/1596240000/1597363200

Sale 3: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198981974504#!/compare/1592352000/1592870400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1592265600/1592352000

Sale 4: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198005032783#!/compare/1593907200/1594080000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067055431#!/compare/1592956800/1594252800

Sale 5: Untrace/Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198006295346#!/compare/1597968000/1598054400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114402400#!/compare/1597968000/1598054400

Marketplace

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1120;5;u3031

July

$5.65 on July 8 (5.65/1.99 = 2.85~)

$7.99 on July 8 (7.99/1.99 = 4~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-08

8.89 on July 9 (8.89/1.99 = 4.45~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-09

10 on July 25 (10/1.93 = 5.2~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-25

Listings during the time: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MQ0VLXN3

August

$11.9 on August 1 (11.9/1.91 = 6.25~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-08-01

Listings during the time: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4P0R0Q06

Classifieds

https://gyazo.com/9c92122e15074af72a78339118a16108

Buyers are up to 3.4 keys~.

Summary

Sale at 4.

Marketplace sales at 2.85, 4, 4.4, 5.2, and 6.25.

Conclusion

Excluding 2.85 due to buyers.

Excluding 5.2 and 6.25 due to past sellers.

Going with 4-4.4 here.