Why is 35 the outlier and not 22? Also I know the dates worked out that only the last May sale was indate, but if your going to use 1 old sale you should see what the other sales at the same time were, even if slightly outdated:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165629568#!/compare/1589673600/1589760000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165629568#!/compare/1589932800/1590192000

Hot Specialized Killstreak Aqua Marine Rocket Launcher (Minimal Wear) (~55, but supports higher) through scrap auctions

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198345751006#!/compare/1590451200/1590537600

Added net 3 keys in sweets for a Minigun (~31)

I don't see a current seller at $55, which person re-listed for $55? the one who paid $49.99?

With what I see here I would go 27 - 35 for a conservative drop