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Guess I was right.
Sales
Sale 1: Untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198124723591#!/compare/1591315200/1591401600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198279670065#!/compare/1591315200/1591401600
Sale 2: Untrace, gambled maybe?
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198279539667#!/compare/1591228800/1591315200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198124723591#!/compare/1591142400/1591228800
https://backpack.tf/item/8161184929
Marketplace
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30845;5;u3025
August
$29.99 on August 9 (29.99/1.87 = 16~)
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-08-09
Listings during the time: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4ZPL3DD1
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4O9E8L2W
$33 on August 30 (33/1.88 = 18~)
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-08-30
Buyout was 17 keys.
Listings during the time: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MXX2ZJ81
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MXX6O987
Classifieds
https://gyazo.com/937439575be6e4224af772f401adc838
Buyers up to 11~.
Summary
Marketplace sales at 16 and 17.
Conclusion
Going with 16-17 here.
Edit: nevermind, the B/O of 17 can be seen in the snapshots of the first mp sale.