Resuggest:

Marketplace.tf sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30876;5;u3020

Sale #1: $6.75 / $2.00 (https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-12) = 3.38 ~ 3.4 keys

Sale #2: $8.99 / $1.98 (https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-16) = 4.54 ~ 4.6 keys

Sale #3: $8.99 / $2.04 (https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-27) = 4.41 ~ 4.4 keys

All unknown b/o and item history.

Mannco.store

https://mannco.store/item/8616

Sale #4: $10.00 / $ 1.70 (2020-08-18) = 5.88 ~ 6 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/6388486529

unknown b/o

Item tracing:

https://backpack.tf/item/6255602678

Sale #5: untraced

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055432130#!/compare/1591833600/1592265600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199000818082#!/compare/1585872000/1597190400

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Current listings: https://gyazo.com/27a5dc189c2c9d8fcb43fb5d9c746957

No seller

Buying at 2.71 keys

1 Selling at marketplace.tf for $8.99 / ~$1.85 = ~4.86 keys

Credit toXergoy

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hidden history: https://backpack.tf/item/7118607048

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1592784000/1592870400

Sold for 3 keys 1 ref ~ 3 keys

Can trace 3 keys https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1597276800/1597363200

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MQ02RNXP - b/o was 3 keys 23.88 ref so it prolly sold for that since its a bot.

Took almost 2 months to sell

The math is wrong for Sale 3, that sale is also 4.5

$8.99 / $2.04 = 4.41 keys

Given that this took 2 months to sell for (likely) ~3.5, I would call the 4.5s and 6 high here and go 3 - 3.4 (rounding to the nearest .05 since we are under 5 key)

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Taking 3 - 3.4 keys