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Resuggestion from https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5f45317571df1b44027cec86
Copy pasting proof as is because none of it is mine
//
Proof by anything in the last month https://backpack.tf/u/76561198804015732
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30609;5;u3006
$17.72 on 8/4 (9.5)
$17.9 on 8/4 (9.5)
$17.9 on 8/6 (9.5)
$8.3 on 8/9 (4.5)
$11.88 on 8/19 (6.5)
$12 on 8/23 (6.5)
$12 on 8/24 (6.5)
$8.75 on 8/25 (5)
https://backpack.tf/item/5810015021
https://backpack.tf/item/8121176504
mptf
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111097313#!/compare/1592092800/1596412800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065452570#!/compare/1596067200/1596672000
untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1593388800/1593475200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198416282143#!/compare/1593216000/1593561600
untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198416282143#!/compare/1597190400/1598140800
bulk for cmoon desert maurader
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4EPR2XPK
piotrex was at 11k before listings crash, at 8k now
buy orders at 5.35
6.5-9.5 it is
//
Proof by https://backpack.tf/u/76561198156255538
Going back 1 more month:
There have been sellers at 6 for a long time, with the market only recently clearing up:
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4WXLQ955 - end of june
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M19PPQ6O - start of july (sellers at 5.5 even)
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4EP30LJQ - end of july
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4EPDQD12 - start of august
also: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30609;5;u3006
$10.01 / $2.01 = 4.98 keys
$8.12 / $1.95 = 4.16 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111097313#!/compare/1596412800/1598486400
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y3WX3LQR - b/o was 6
sold for 6 - in the 1 month period, was selling for 6 since june
9.5s are high outliers, even the 5s were not under buyers until very recently
6 - 6.5 is better here.
//
Going with 6-6.5