https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121345519#!/compare/1591401600/1591833600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092010721#!/compare/1591833600/1591920000

Bulk

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092010721#!/compare/1592265600/1592352000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158054484#!/compare/1592265600/1592352000

Purple Confetti Caribbean Conqueror - 10.5 keys https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ef6cf048d1034304018a05c

4 keys of sweets

15 key buyout https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MVQW016V

Rounding up to 15

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198254285639#!/compare/1591228800/1591401600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199015532580#!/compare/1591315200/1591401600

Untraceable

//

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199015532580#!/compare/1591747200/1591833600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026245583#!/compare/1591574400/1591920000

1 key and ref traceable, unknown full sale

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026245583#!/compare/1591920000/1592179200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1591833600/1591920000

Looks like 8 keys and 31 refined, but bot.tf actually says its 11 keys, 31 refined

https://gyazo.com/52ebf00b8fdee91031f185430333f96a

https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=980&q=5&ef=Searing%20Plasma&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1592179200/1592265600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198223429284#!/compare/1592179200/1592265600

near ID traces to 8 keys, bot.tf confirms 12 keys:

https://gyazo.com/52ebf00b8fdee91031f185430333f96a

https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=980&q=5&ef=Searing%20Plasma&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script

Sold the same day it was bought

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198223429284#!/compare/1592956800/1593388800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180356134#!/compare/1593388800/1593648000

Untraceable

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1591401600/1591488000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198262012603#!/compare/1591228800/1591747200

15 keys, which was also the buyout https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4R03XVOE

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097499917#!/compare/1596412800/1596585600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147532685#!/compare/1596412800/1596585600

Bulk

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147532685#!/compare/1597449600/1597536000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063640894#!/compare/1597276800/1597536000

Untraceable

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063640894#!/compare/1597276800/1597536000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092010721#!/compare/1597190400/1597536000

Looks like bulk for 165 keys

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092010721#!/compare/1597536000/1597622400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198269337198#!/compare/1597536000/1597622400

Untraceable

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198269337198#!/compare/1597622400/1597708800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198203000900#!/compare/1597622400/1597708800

Untraceable

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198203000900#!/compare/1597708800/1597795200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198990491423#!/compare/1597708800/1597795200

Untraceable

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198990491423#!/compare/1597622400/1597708800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157452762#!/compare/1597622400/1597708800

Untraceable

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157452762#!/compare/1597881600/1597968000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198322052033#!/compare/1597881600/1597968000

Looks like a couple keys leaving the 2nd compare, but even if it happened to be all of it, it would be low

Also was sold by a banned user

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198322052033#!/compare/1597968000/1598054400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067663328#!/compare/1597968000/1598054400

13 keys

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https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067663328#!/compare/1598486400/1598572800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127718182#!/compare/1598400000/1598572800

Miami Nights Runner's Warm-Up

and 1 key + 14 refined

With current sellers on the Warm Up, this will fall in the range. https://gyazo.com/b6737ece68319ee6359e0c5e86392a86

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Sales:

12

13

15

15

12 sold the same day it was bought though

and is now currently under quickbuyers

https://gyazo.com/abb4a0c62420b44b715aea83ce1e5a70

Going with 13-15 keys