Resuggesting, thank you Xergoyf.

Sales

Sale 1: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1594684800/1594944000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961465738#!/compare/1591833600/1595635200

Sale 2: Traced 4 keys + 24 refined (0.874)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1596412800/1596499200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963500354#!/compare/1596412800/1596499200

4.85 is Johan's sale https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MXXKD0V8 however the 4 keys 24 ref you traced is not 4.85 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4J9O2JRX - b/o was 4 keys 45 ref which is

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/YD1X7OVV - keys were 56 at time of sale was 4.8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963500354#!/compare/1596412800/1596499200 - Criminal's compare.

Probably sold for 4 keys 45 ref but cannot be sure.

Sale 3: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198104628427#!/compare/1591833600/1593648000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094563943#!/compare/1590105600/1596672000

Sale 4: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198207532331#!/compare/1596153600/1596585600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198023051867#!/compare/1594598400/1596153600

Other exchanges, such as tradebacks, mannco, scrap, and qs store swapping.

https://backpack.tf/item/6639404469

Marketplace

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30843;5;u3029

May

$9.99 on May 26 (9.99/1.93 = 5.2~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-05-26

Listings during the time: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4ZPEOZ11

June

$7.02 on June 17 (7.02/1.98 = 3.55~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-17

https://backpack.tf/item/7437383049

Listings during the time: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MGLRQEVQ

9.99 on June 21 (9.99/1.99 = 5~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-21

Listings during the time: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y790ZOLN

July

$5 on July 31 (5/1.92 = 2.6~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-31

Listings during the time: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/YD1WJ78R

August

$11.87 on August 17 (11.87/1.79 = 6.5~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-08-17

Listings during the time: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MGL10XXW

$11.87 / $1.86 = 6.38 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/7437383049

Classifieds

https://gyazo.com/ad6ae31c5ac3d8e244f2287a06f657f8

Buyers are up to 3.4~

Seller at 6~.

Summary

Sales at 2.6, 3.55, 4.8, 5, 5.2, 6.4, and 6.5.

Conclusion

Going to exclude 2.6 due to current buyers, and due to past and current sellers, going to exclude 6.5.

Going to exclude 3.55 as well, since it's only about 0.16~ off from the nearest buyer.

That leaves sales at 4.8, 5, and 5.2. 4.8 is uncertain, and 5.2 (5.176) would round down to 5 in this case.

Going to go with 5 flat as 4.8 as unconfirmed.