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And full circle here..
Sales
Sale 1: Sold for 30 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061489334#!/compare/1599091200/1599177600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160425427#!/compare/1599004800/1599091200
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MVQJOE1V
Sale 2: Traced 16 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1593907200/1593993600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061489334#!/compare/1593907200/1593993600
Buyout was about 24 keys, it was only listed for about 3 days, then sold for less anyways.
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/YD1KQ07K
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y5ZGX297
Bot.tf says it was 21 keys
https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=248&q=5&ef=Haunted%20Ghosts&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script
https://gyazo.com/6eda853589abc95f1c6adbe4c4f13de8
The sale was probably 21 in that case.
Sale 3: Untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271914683#!/compare/1592438400/1597449600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305494036#!/compare/1592352000/1592438400
Bot.tf says it was about 18 keys~
https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=248&q=5&ef=Haunted%20Ghosts&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script
https://gyazo.com/6eda853589abc95f1c6adbe4c4f13de8
Sale 4: Untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013596262#!/compare/1592870400/1592956800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963262796#!/compare/1592179200/1593302400
This is probably the marketplace sale below, the dates match.
Other exchanges, such as tradebacks.
https://backpack.tf/item/921903562
Marketplace
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/248;5;u8
$60 on June 25 (60/1.99 = 30~)
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-06-25
https://backpack.tf/item/221000305
Listings during the time: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MNR9GW1R
Classifieds
https://gyazo.com/5598451297d144e6883770b1ada4d109
Summary
Sales at 18 (likely), 21 (likely), and 30.
Marketplace sales at 30.
Conclusion
18 was to a buyorder, and is also low due to current buyers at higher.
21 also seems low, it was listed at 24 for only about 3 days, and then it sold for 21.
Going to go with 30 flat here.
Don't you think a raise to 30 is kinda odd if two out of three sales are below current?
Well a month ago, while I did find it not exactly reassuring, I did think 18 and 21 were considerably low.
But now, after the month, I know that 30 flat would not be appropriate here, since the buyer for the 30 pure, resold to a buyorder: https://backpack.tf/item/921903562
While I did think 21 was low, I think it'd be okay to make a range of 21-30 here, since there's also a new seller at 23: https://gyazo.com/5b11973b35e7621766426501ffe97162
https://backpack.tf/item/921903562
(There were 2 sales at 30, so I think including 30 would be fine).
I would personally close and wait here. The current market implies 30 may simply be high with that seller at 23, but also with a mp seller at ~$53.
That being said, 21-30 is definitely better than 30 flat here.