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Okay back at it..
Sales
Nothing recent.
Marketplace
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/921;5;u108
July
$78 on July 4 (78/2 = 39)
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-04
Listings during the time: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4R068902
73.49 on July 27 (73.49/1.92 = 38~)
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-27
Buyout was 35 keys
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y80777EN
Classifieds
https://gyazo.com/ed76b634c6552ac6dd47462bb1b9f8c6
Summary
Marketplace sales at 35 and 39.
Conclusion
Going with 35-39 here.
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4WX5XQ1X - both mp sales likely had b/os of 39 so no caps
https://backpack.tf/item/5256166307 - checking SoxXe's inventory from the above snapshot reveal a hidden history, more sales to look into there
These are the sales within that history.
Sold for 39 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092578541#!/compare/1593216000/1595894400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160015110#!/compare/1589241600/1597449600
Traced 3 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160015110#!/compare/1598054400/1598140800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044734871#!/compare/1598054400/1598140800
Bulk
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044734871#!/compare/1598140800/1598227200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169756327#!/compare/1598140800/1598227200
Untrace
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199063531190#!/compare/1598400000/1598486400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198288866449#!/compare/1598313600/1598486400
Sold for 18 keys + 16.1 keys~ in stranges
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198288866449#!/compare/1598313600/1598486400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198182549022#!/compare/1598400000/1598486400
18 + 16 = 34~
Sold for 32 keys + 8.55 refined
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198182549022#!/compare/1598486400/1598659200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1598400000/1598486400
32~
That now makes sales at 32, 34, 38, 39, and 39.
34 resold for 32, but that makes 2 sales at lower. There are buyers at 32, so excluding that is probably fine, and while usually I would exclude these kinds of sales, I feel like I should include 34 here.
What do you think?
Yeah I think that is reasonable, given how close 34 is to 35 and uncertainty of the value of the stranges (since many have parts) this should be fine as-is.