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Slug
Sellers
https://gyazo.com/a1e2e6951f24fff8521c4044ba43a2c3
Marketplace
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30028;5;u9
$45.38 / $1.84 = 24.66 keys
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y808J1O9 Likely B/O at 25
$39.9 / $1.98 = 20.15 keys
No B/O found
$21.2 / $1.84 = 11.52 keys
Sold to Buy order
Sales:
https://backpack.tf/item/9212522430
Sold to Earth's buyorder of 17 keys 48 ref
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MLVD5ZJ8
Sale 2: Bought from Earth for 19 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195933333#!/compare/1600214400/1600300800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1600214400/1600300800
https://backpack.tf/item/8479257012 (One key from a 19 total earth got that day)
Sales
25
20
19
18
11
Summary
Excluding the 18 and 11 due to being below buy orders, also excluding the 19 since it sold in under a day. Keeping and using 20 and 25 sales
Final
20-25
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4668GLX9 - might be the b/o for the $45 sale however it was only up for <1 day at that price it its possible it was Kaft's sale like you mentioned, so this should be fine.