Sales

Sale 1: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198186211415#!/compare/1597363200/1597449600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1597276800/1597363200

Buyorder of 9.5 keys~

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M0O8P1DV

Sale 2: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1598745600/1598832000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040877219#!/compare/1597363200/1600992000

Sale 3: Sold for 14 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341171690#!/compare/1595462400/1595635200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198287352876#!/compare/1594684800/1595980800

https://bot.tf/stats/item?def=30977&q=5&ef=Smoking&craft=1&aus=0&ks=0&source=browser_script

https://gyazo.com/54d4751e3380d8ff2a02d46698fd3ceb

Sale 4: Traced 5 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198287352876#!/compare/1596499200/1596585600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1596499200/1596585600

Buyorder of 9 keys~

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/429VKVGG

Sale 5: Traced 8 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1597536000/1597622400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055302688#!/compare/1597536000/1597881600

Buyout of 11 keys~.

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/46685JVL

Sale 6: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055302688#!/compare/1598745600/1600300800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148979286#!/compare/1528848000/1600473600

Sale 7: Traced 5 keys + 10 refined

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085549008#!/compare/1599782400/1599868800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198297779899#!/compare/1599782400/1599868800

Sale 8: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198800776268#!/compare/1599609600/1599696000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085549008#!/compare/1599609600/1599782400

Sale 9: Traced 3 keys + 8 refined

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198973900601#!/compare/1599523200/1599609600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198800776268#!/compare/1599523200/1599609600

Sale 10: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198318312577#!/compare/1597622400/1597708800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198973900601#!/compare/1563148800/1599436800

Sale 11: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198257697091#!/compare/1597536000/1601251200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198318312577#!/compare/1597622400/1601510400

Buyout of 11 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/46685JVL

Sale 12: Traced 3 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087175689#!/compare/1597363200/1597449600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198257697091#!/compare/1597276800/1597449600

Buyout of 13 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/M0O8110V

Sale 13: Bulk for 28 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061866742#!/compare/1597190400/1597363200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087175689#!/compare/1597276800/1597363200

Sale 14: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144768561#!/compare/1597276800/1597363200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061866742#!/compare/1597190400/1597363200

Buyout of 14 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/46689WV2

Sale 15: Sold for 14~ keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198330641537#!/compare/1596585600/1597104000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144768561#!/compare/1596067200/1596585600

Sale 16: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1595030400/1595203200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198330641537#!/compare/1579737600/1596585600

Buyout of 12 keys

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y5ZQQ1J5

Marketplace

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30977;5;u35

July

$26.67 on July 25 (26.67/1.93 = 14~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-07-25

August

$27.99 on August 31 (27.99/1.86 = 15~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-08-31

Listings during the time: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/4WXRK15Z

Classifieds

https://gyazo.com/cc7d0dd1d2a70fababa1d06f15d12e47

Summary

Sales at 9, 9.5, 11, 14, and 14.

Marketplace sales at 14 and 15.

Conclusion

Buyers at 10 show that 9, 9.5 are low here.

15 likely high, since there was a seller at 12 during the time of the sale.

Considering the buyouts at less, I think it's fair to include the low end as 11 here.

Going with 11-14 here.