Fun right.

Sales

Sale 1: Sold for 50 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061489334#!/compare/1601769600/1601856000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198874194908#!/compare/1601769600/1601078400

Sale 2: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045883624#!/compare/1597795200/1598400000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198207603105#!/compare/1597708800/1597795200

Sale 3: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195933333#!/compare/1598227200/1598313600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198034606228#!/compare/1580947200/1601337600

The sale went within 2-3 hours, cant even find a buyout :(

Sale 4: Traced 7 refined

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041860163#!/compare/1587686400/1598313600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195933333#!/compare/1598227200/1598313600

Buyorder was 38 keys, 7 refined

https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MXX29038

Sale 5: Bulk/Itembot

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057228063#!/compare/1600041600/1600128000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1600041600/1600128000

Sale 6: Sold for 50 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160856661#!/compare/1598227200/1598313600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872941721#!/compare/1597881600/1598313600

Sale 7: Untrace/Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056793885#!/compare/1596153600/1596240000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160856661#!/compare/1596153600/1596240000

Sale 8: Sold for 31 keys?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119198857#!/compare/1594684800/1594944000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056793885#!/compare/1594598400/1594857600

Sale 9: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198432714467#!/compare/1594598400/1594684800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119198857#!/compare/1594598400/1594684800

https://backpack.tf/item/7287541679

Sale 10: Sold with 10 keys for Frozen Icefall Globetrotter (52.5 keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198832761255#!/compare/1594598400/1594684800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198432714467#!/compare/1594598400/1594684800

52.5 - 10 = 42.5 rounding to 43 keys

Sale 11: Untrace/Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170143095#!/compare/1594425600/1594512000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198832761255#!/compare/1591315200/1594425600

Sale 12: Traced 3 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148272399#!/compare/1594080000/1594339200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170143095#!/compare/1594252800/1594339200

Sale 13: 42 keys~?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198381243318#!/compare/1594166400/1594252800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148272399#!/compare/1594080000/1594339200

Histories/ID's do not match, but it makes sense..

Sale 14: Sold for 37 keys + Skill Gotten Gains Taunt: Didgeridrongo (Buyers at 4.32 keys~)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198235159048#!/compare/1593993600/1594080000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198381243318#!/compare/1593993600/1594080000

37 + 4.32 = 41 keys~

Skill Gotten Gains Taunt: Didgeridrongo: https://gyazo.com/ff508ecd3ec2dc82e4bdffff4f25d9bf

Sale 15: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087099341#!/compare/1596412800/1596499200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198149388672#!/compare/1596412800/1596499200

Sale 16: Sold with about 3.5 keys of items~ for Steaming Bonk Boy (44 keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198255764866#!/compare/1596326400/1596412800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087099341#!/compare/1596326400/1596412800

44 - 3.6 = 40 keys~

Sale 17: 33 keys~ (buyers bp)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200696439#!/compare/1596240000/1596672000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198255764866#!/compare/1596240000/1596326400

Sale 18: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161095436#!/compare/1601424000/1601510400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141538255#!/compare/1600992000/1601424000

Sale 19: Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311981931#!/compare/1599609600/1599696000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1599609600/1599696000

Sale 20: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1599523200/1599609600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311981931#!/compare/1599436800/1599523200

Sale 21: Untrace/Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961245895#!/compare/1599436800/1599523200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1599436800/1599523200

Sale 22: Untrace/Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197960274404#!/compare/1599350400/1599436800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961245895#!/compare/1598400000/1599350400

Sale 23: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082319502#!/compare/1598313600/1598400000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197960274404#!/compare/1598313600/1598400000

Sale 24: Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136702159#!/compare/1597363200/1597449600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134397080#!/compare/1596931200/1597449600

Sale 25: Sold for 37 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144820745#!/compare/1597104000/1597190400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136702159#!/compare/1597104000/1597190400

Buyers were up to 36, 40 at this point: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y808JJQW

Sale 26: Sold for 32 keys~

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000889832#!/compare/1601251200/1601337600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363395191#!/compare/1601078400/1601337600

Marketplace sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31016;5;u115

August

90 on August 12 (90/1.84 = 49~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-08-12

89 on August 20 (89/1.79 = 50~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-08-20

93 on August 25 (93/1.83 = 51~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-08-25

Listings during the time: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y79V2079

September

95.99 on September 5 (95.99/1.83 = 52~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-09-05

Listings during the time: https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MVQ07VV2

88.1 on September 18 (88.1/1.85 = 48~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-09-18

88.99 on September 21 (88.99/1.84 = 48~)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-09-21

Other exchanges such as with qs store and mptf.

https://backpack.tf/item/9005203990

Current Classifieds

https://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=Murderer%27s%20Motif&quality=5&tradable=1&craftable=1&australium=-1&particle=115&killstreak_tier=0

https://gyazo.com/c5d5c0156d10e5b2b83293b5f614aeba

Summary

Sales at 31 (possibly), 32, 33, 37, 38, 40, 41, 42 (possibly), 43, 50, and 50.

Marketplace sales at 48, 48, 49, 50, 51, and 52.

Conclusion

Buyers are kinda all over the place, there are 2 at 30 and 31.8~. Another two at 42~.

Going to exclude 31, 32, and 33 due to being far lower than current and past buyers.

37 and 38 were both to buyorders, (or lower than buyers during the time), excluding both.

51 and 52 are probably too high here, as there are 3 current sellers at 50, and quite a few past sellers at around 50 during both times.

40, 41, and 42 are lower than the buyers at 42.26, but only 2 buyers which im using to exclude other sales.

Going with 40-50 here.

Take it easy.