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https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30885;5;u11;strange
$112.00 / $1.85
Seems like there are more sales:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160856661#!/compare/1598745600/1598832000
Aussie tomi + aussie black box + genuine original + tod ticket (.5)
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MVQJWEE6 - tomi is 21
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MXX6D6N7 - black box is 14
https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MVQJWDG2 - original is ~<3
so 21 + 14 + <3 + .5 = 38
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198342979708#!/compare/1599177600/1599264000
22 pure? Maybe some other item that was qsed for 11 was invovlved. Either way seller for 38 sold for less.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198355436882#!/compare/1599523200/1599609600
30 pure
so sales at 22/30/38/61. 61 is certainly a high outlier here, 30 - 38 should work.
https://backpack.tf/item/6737577783
All of these sales involve my exact hat (same Item #) because there's only 1 Strange TF Nuke. Whereas I bought the hat to keep it for my collection, the other buyers owned it for less than 10 days each, implying that they bought it only because they felt it was priced too low.
The first sale looks like it might've been just the Black Box and the Original, i.e. 17 keys. Then sold quickly for 22. Which was then sold quickly for 30. Repeatedly sniped by people until it found its way to my inventory.
Can I suggest a range of 30 - 61? 17 and 22 seem like the real outliers.
A couple things:
First, none of the sales occurred fast enough to be classified as a quicksell, both the 22 sale and the 30 sale took around 4 days. It would have to be around a day or so for them to be qs here.
I don't think the 38 sale was only the Original and Black Box simply because Torb wouldn't make that trade. Your right tho, it is possible the obtained together is wrong since the histories don't match on the other two. If the sale was 38, the buyer selling for 22 after implies 38 might be high, and 61 is in another league above it so theres no way 61 is included no matter what that sale was. Even in your ideal scenario, 30 - 61 is way too wide, and 61 is clearly an outlier with sales at 17/22 even if they were quicksells which they were not.
I wouldn't be opposed to 30 flat, but its either that or 30 - 38.