I like Signs

Sign of a big drop

Sellers: - https://gyazo.com/f567c47547e0509fd7ed5bb2a8baa44e

https://backpack.tf/item/6785370343 - young @ 20 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3477034796 - 1 day @ $55, ~28 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/9061280664 - 4 days @ $55, 25 key buyout

https://backpack.tf/item/8076936293 - 1 month @ 80 keys

Sale 1)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1600992000/1601078400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198357989497#!/compare/1600992000/1601078400 - Sold for a Searing Plasma Neckwear Headwear (23.5) + ~7.5 keys in sweets = 31 keys, caps at buyout

Buyout was ~26 keys https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MG599ZJ2

Sale 2)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063536945#!/compare/1598832000/1598918400 - Untrace

Sale 3)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123623513#!/compare/1589068800/1598572800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063536945#!/compare/1598400000/1598572800 - Untrace

Sale 4)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198420889695#!/compare/1598400000/1598486400 - Untrace

Sale 5)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198420889695#!/compare/1598227200/1598400000 - Untrace

Sale 6)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161131690#!/compare/1598054400/1598313600 - Bulk

Sale 7)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161131690#!/compare/1597968000/1598054400 - Untrace

Sale 8)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197960274404#!/compare/1597881600/1597968000 - Untrace

Sale 9)

https://backpack.tf/item/8949628185 https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30357;5;u18 - Dates to Sujak don't match 100%

Sale 10)

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30357;5;u18 https://backpack.tf/item/8949628185

$55 / $1.84 = 30 keys

Sale 11)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198171126142#!/compare/1598313600/1598400000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258113178#!/compare/1581811200/1598400000 - Untrace

Sale 12)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199039289574#!/compare/1598227200/1598313600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198171126142#!/compare/1598227200/1598313600 - Sold with 2 keys in sweets for a Tesla Coil Kiss King (26) = 24 keys

No buyout traced

Sale 13)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199039289574#!/compare/1597622400/1597708800 - Looks high, Nunhood + Runners + Keys

Sale 14)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049884052#!/compare/1597536000/1597622400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198162573754#!/compare/1597622400/1597708800 - Sold with ~5.1 keys in sweets for a Fifth Dimension Convict Cap (10) + a Neutron Star Wide-Brimmed Bandito (14.5) + ~11.5 keys in sweets = 31 keys

No buyout traced

Mini for Bandito:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30805;5;u107

$26 - $26.73 = 14 - 14.5 keys. Buyers counter 14. It won't be much higher as sellers at 15 keys

Sale 15)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198207755712#!/compare/1601164800/1601337600 - Untrace, possibly 18 keys but they don't match

Sale 16)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198954470051#!/compare/1600387200/1600473600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072932607#!/compare/1600387200/1600473600 - Using there

Sale 17)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198829280236#!/compare/1597276800/1597363200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198954470051#!/compare/1597276800/1597363200 - Sold for a Burning Flames Bombing Run (32)

No buyout traced

Sale 18)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198829280236#!/compare/1596412800/1596844800 - Use there, only sale

Sale 19)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129621897#!/compare/1596758400/1596844800 - Bulk

Sale 20)

https://backpack.tf/item/6785370343 https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30357;5;u18

$53 / $1.89 = 28 keys

Sales 21 - 22)

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30357;5;u18

$54.99 / $1.79 = 31 keys

$30.10 / $1.87 = 16 keys

Sales:

16, 24, 26, 28, 30, 31, 31 and 32

Calling 16 low due to buyers

All the other data points are close together

Much better than current

Seller at 20 is young yet

Thanks =)