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Resuggestion from https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5f3772f1c9d36b548026a4d8
Copy pasting proof as is because none of it is mine
//
Proof by https://backpack.tf/u/76561198804015732
buyout dropping this
https://imgur.com/a/rQJKkiF
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063640894#!/compare/1589846400/1589932800
scorching war pig (280) + 1k = burning naggen - iso mw carpet bomber (~50)
most recent carpet bomber sales were in april (that are not bulk)
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/15012;15;u702;w2;pk4;kt-3
$85 on april 27, so this is clearly not anywhere close to 80 keys
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/15012;5;u702;w2;pk4;festive
there's also a seller for $99 now
This puts the naggen at around 229, but the seller has it relisted for 200 for two months now, so i am going to use that value instead (the sale i linked is almost outdated, only five days left anyhow)
The other seller on marketplace has his listed at ~221 keys, or $396, with keys at around 1.8.
//
Proof by https://backpack.tf/u/76561198253093948
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30109;5;u13
Sale today for $395.99
//
Proof by https://backpack.tf/u/76561198085880346
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197971854756#!/compare/1597795200/1597881600 - Caps at 200
Since that's a considerable bit above 200, I'd go 200 - 216 Keys here (Marketplace sale = 216)
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200-216