This is my first suggestion I’ve done research on, so any feedback is appreciated. I’d like input on which values to use, although I think that 80 to 86 is fair, other people might disagree. I know the value needs to be updated, but as I’m new to this I’m not sure which most accurately represents the price. I updated my math from the last section and used the links Mockingbird gave me in the previous suggestion to gather trades for an all around more accurate price.

Here is an im.gur album with the 4 trades, each labelled: https://imgur.com/a/i6Dl7ra

Item Trades:

https://backpack.tf/item/7732208309

- September 14: Tundra Top for 49 keys + Green Energy Head Hedge (26.5 keys) for a total of 75.5 keys [Trade 1]

https://backpack.tf/item/7476800867

- September 11th: Tundra Top and 9 keys for a Frozen Icefall Bumble Bee (70-100 keys) [Trade 2] (Values Tundra between 61 and 91)

- September 1st: Tundra Top for Circling Hearts Killer Exclusive (97 keys), 9 keys, and 7.83 keys in taunts for a total of 113.83 keys [Trade 3]

https://backpack.tf/item/7447599887

- October 7th: Marketplace sale

- September 16th: Tundra Top for Haunted Phantasm JR Neckwear Headwear (105 keys) and 6.18 keys in items for a total of 111.18 keys [Trade 4]

https://backpack.tf/item/6760354424

- Marketplace sale

Sales that I can’t determine:

https://backpack.tf/item/6847563841 - all buyers/sellers have tons of trades

https://backpack.tf/item/6841303453 - all buyers/sellers have tons of trades

https://backpack.tf/item/6752106425 - recent buyers/sellers have tons of trades, others are 2+ months old

- Tons of unusuals traded/sold for seller/buyers, no way to determine value -- I'm too stupid, if anyone knows how let me know and I’ll get the values :)

All Unusual/Key Sell Values:

75.5 keys, 76 keys (61-91 keys), 113.83 keys, 111.18 keys

Marketplace Sales (W/ Avg. key price from day of sale):

Oct 18 | $124 | $124/1.87 per key = 66.31 keys

Oct 10 | $134 | $134/1.88 per key = 71.27 keys

Oct 8 | $133.34 | $133.34/1.87 per key = 71.30 keys

Oct 7 | $120 | $120/1.87 per key = 64.17 keys

Oct 6 | $155 | $155/1.87 per key = 82.88 keys

Sept 23 | $161 | $161/1.86 per key = 86.55 keys

Sept 20 | $130 | $130/1.85 per key = 70.27 keys

Low range refers to pricing of the Frozen Icefall Bumblebee. The tundra added 9 keys, so I subtract 9 keys from the high/low price. Low range (70) values it at [61], while the high range (100) values it at [91] (i address how this is mostly pointless further down, don’t worry)

With marketplace.tf outliers:

Low Range: 75.5 + [61] + 113.83 + 111.18 + *66.31* + 71.27 + 71.30 + *64.17* + 82.88 + 86.55 + 70.27 = 874.26 / 11 = Avg of 79.47 keys

High Range: 75.5 + [91] + 113.83 + 111.18 + *66.31* + 71.27 + 71.30 + *64.17* + 82.88 + 86.55 + 70.27 = 904.26 / 11 = Avg of 82.2 keys

Without marketplace.tf outliers:

Low Range: 75.5 + [61] + 113.83 + 111.18 + 71.27 + 71.30 + 82.88 + 86.55 + 70.27 = 743.78 / 9 = Avg of 82.6422 keys

High Range: 75.5 + [91] + 113.83 + 111.18 + 71.27 + 71.30 + 82.88 + 86.55 + 70.27 = 773.78 / 9 = Avg of 86 keys

After doing the math I realized I could have just used 76 instead of 61-91, which would give an equally accurate average with less math. On the bright side I can now use the low range outlier and high range w/o outlier to determine the range, which I believe is more accurate anyway

Since a lot of the low value sales are marketplace.tf sells for cash, I think an average of with/without them is accurate, but I will change if people think otherwise.

Proposed values

- Average with outliers, 80.835 keys

- Average without outliers, 84.32 keys

- Average of with and without outliers, 82.5 keys

I went with 80-86, as I think it gives the best approximation.