83 in existence

Mini for Frozen Icefall Blast Defense

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/9214158406

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198848406878#!/compare/1600819200/1601251200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341171690#!/compare/1601078400/1601164800

Untrace

Sale 2

Listed on MP

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/9190229188

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198312728345#!/compare/1600646400/1600992000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1600732800/1600819200

Sold to bot buy order

Sale 4

Delisted off MP multiple times

Sale 5

Sold on MP

Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/9106193947

Sale 6

Sold on MP

Item 4

https://backpack.tf/item/9040749604

Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198826392032#!/compare/1599782400/1602115200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109881598#!/compare/1600387200/1600560000

Untrace

Sale 8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109881598#!/compare/1600732800/1601337600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062420532#!/compare/1600560000/1600905600

36 keys match

Item 5

https://backpack.tf/item/9012257946

Sale 9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195760538#!/compare/1600128000/1600387200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195933333#!/compare/1600041600/1600128000

Sold for 45 keys

Sale 10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195933333#!/compare/1600387200/1600473600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198161016501#!/compare/1600387200/1603411200

Untrace

Item 6

https://backpack.tf/item/8995857455

Sale 11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198874165677#!/compare/1599091200/1599177600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195933333#!/compare/1599004800/1599091200

Sold for 42 keys

Sale 12

Sold on MP

Item 7

https://backpack.tf/item/8770061262

Sale 13

Delisted and relisted on MP

Item 8

https://backpack.tf/item/8756309045

Sale 14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198194997179#!/compare/1598400000/1599091200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341171690#!/compare/1599004800/1599091200

Untrace/gambling

Sale 15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341171690#!/compare/1599696000/1599782400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045152050#!/compare/1599696000/1600992000

2 scrap match, untrace

Item 9

https://backpack.tf/item/8745722740

Sale 16

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049884052#!/compare/1603411200/1603584000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150113885#!/compare/1603324800/1603670400

Untrace

Item 10

https://backpack.tf/item/8539296443

Sale 17

Sold on MP

Sale 18

Excluding sales to and from qs.store

Item 11

https://backpack.tf/item/8500546281

Sale 19

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055672922#!/compare/1599177600/1599609600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198028546685#!/compare/1570924800/1602115200

Untrace

Sale 20

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198028546685#!/compare/1603670400/1603756800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069286674#!/compare/1603670400/1603756800

Sold for:

Cloud 9 Brain Bucket

Astral Presence Taunt: Burstchester

14 keys

Can't really accurately price the Burst at the moment, excluding

Item 12

https://backpack.tf/item/8453152390

Sale 21

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089631701#!/compare/1602633600/1602806400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077598622#!/compare/1602720000/1602806400

Bulk for Amaranthine Dapper's

Sale 22

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077598622#!/compare/1602892800/1602979200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147499711#!/compare/1602892800/1602979200

Untrace

Sale 23

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147499711#!/compare/1602979200/1603065600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198179707937#!/compare/1603065600/1603152000

Untrace, seems to be SCM

Item 13

https://backpack.tf/item/8450766370

Sale 24

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041186431#!/compare/1599696000/1600214400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195933333#!/compare/1600128000/1600214400

Untrace

Sale 25

Sold on MP

Sale 26

Sold to bot, then delisted and relisted on MP

Item 14

https://backpack.tf/item/8346284254

Sale 27

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197990998139#!/compare/1599177600/1599350400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198966838493#!/compare/1599177600/1599264000

Untrace

Sale 28

Excluding sales to and from qs.store

Sale 29

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198301240927#!/compare/1600560000/1600646400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195933333#!/compare/1600473600/1600560000

6 ref matches

Sale 30

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195933333#!/compare/1600560000/1600646400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1600560000/1600646400

86 keys match, guessing bulk

Sale 31

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1601596800/1601683200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103480691#!/compare/1601596800/1602547200

Untrace

Marketplace sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31085;5;u134

Taking last 2 months, from 31/08/20 onwards

Sep 2nd - $100 / $1.82 = 54.95 keys

Sep 3rd - $98 / $1.84 = 53.26 keys

Sep 8th - $97 / $1.83 = 53.01 keys

Sep 15th - $89.99 / $1.86 = 48.38 keys

Sep 15th - $89.99 / $1.86 = 48.38 keys

Sep 19th - $70 / $1.87 = 37.43 keys

Oct 1st - $89 / $1.84 = 48.37 keys

Oct 3rd - $75 / $1.85 = 40.54 keys

Oct 10th - $70 / $1.88 = 37.23 keys

Oct 14th - $80 / $1.86 = 43.01 keys

Oct 22nd - $74 / $1.85 = 40.00 keys

Oct 22nd - $70 / $1.85 = 37.84 keys

Oct 30th - $80 / $1.82 = 43.96 keys

Sales

36, 45, 42, 55, 53, 53, 48, 48, 37, 48, 41, 37, 43, 40, 38, 44

Sales but ordered

36, 37, 37, 38, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 48, 48, 48, 53, 53, 55

Current Listings

https://prnt.sc/vaq8x3

Sellers at:

43 keys

50 keys

60 keys

Buyers at:

35.4 keys

Seeing as:

36 was to bot buy order, 42 and 45 were both bought off bots, the rest are all mp sales.

The sales at 37 and 38 I think are 70$ sale which is close to the 67$ buyer currently present on MP

53, 53 and 55 are all older sales from the start of september, the 97, 98 and 100$ respectively

Taking 40 - 48 keys as a conservative drop

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30621;5;u3038

Sale at $36.67 today

Round to around ~19 keys or so probably

Thanks MoonMan for the extra information! Much appreciated

This brings sale 20 likely to around 45 keys or so, not going to mini the C9 Brain atm, busy with school but it'll fit in the range