https://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=Smissmas%20Saxton&quality=11&tradable=1&craftable=1&australium=-1&killstreak_tier=0

Buy Orders start at 35 ref.

Sell Orders start at 1.54, ~1.55 keys.

No usable bot.tf sales.

Marketplace.tf Sales:

https://ibb.co/Zh4sC3n

2 Sold for $2.21/ 1.82 = 1.21, ~1.2 keys.

1 Sold for $2.97/ 1.87 = 1.58, ~1.6 keys.

1 Sold for $2.50/ 1.85 = 1.35 keys.

2 Sold for $3.00/ 1.87 = 1.6 keys.

SCM Sales:

1 Sold for $2.37/ 2.33 = 1.01, ~1 key.

1 Sold for $1.90/ 2.34 = 0.81, ~0.8 keys.

1 Sold for $1.15/ 2.32 = 22.88 ref.

1 Sold for $1.54/ 2.24 = 31.22 ref.

Excluding all other sales due to being either too low for current buy orders or too high for current sell orders. Also excluding 0.8 keys sale due to being a likely outlier sale, or possibly a quicksell. Going with 1 - 1.6 keys.