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History 1: https://backpack.tf/item/8324098990
12 keys (the seller gave 8.55 ref but it still rounds to 12):
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1602633600/1602720000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119464246#!/compare/1602633600/1602720000
Untraceable:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119464246#!/compare/1602720000/1602892800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080179568#!/compare/1605484800/1605571200
History 2: https://backpack.tf/item/8041609163
Sold on Marketplace.tf: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31049;5;u18
October 5 2020: $19.99/1.85=10.81 keys ~11
no buyout https://bot.tf/stats/listings/Y5OE3ZR9
Going 11-12
Seeing how the person who paid 12 keys dumped it on another bot 2 days later - presumably for much less - I would just exclude that sale.
Going by the history on the 11 key sale on marketplace it seems like that already took a long time as well, so 11 flat seems better here.