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8 recent sales that I can find
Marketplace.tf sales 1-4: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1118;5;u3048
43.5/1.87=23.26 keys
38/1.81=20.99 keys
38/1.78=21.35 keys
24.44/1.75=13.97 keys
Sale 5:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092040160#!/compare/1603324800/1604016000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198219288407#!/compare/1603929600/1604361600
Sold for 15 keys
Sale 6:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050493804#!/compare/1604534400/1605052800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198219288407#!/compare/1604534400/1604707200
Sold for 20 keys
Sale 7:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198281630040#!/compare/1605398400/1605484800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198099260958#!/compare/1605398400/1605484800
Untraceable
Sale 8:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198099260958#!/compare/1605139200/1605398400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090409013#!/compare/1604707200/1605484800
Untraceable
2 of the sales are untraceable and 2 sales at around 14 and 15 seem like outliers.
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1118;5;u3048
five sales here
divide by key price on the day of the sale https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6
Thanks, I did that and I got new numbers so I guess I need to change the price amount that I suggest to around 20-23? The 14 and 15 seems like outliers.