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Buyers suggest that the price range for this is too low.
All the item comparisons I could find are untraceable unfortunately :/
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/107;5;u57 5 Sales on marketplace.tf within the past 3 months, from September 21-December 6th
Median Price of keys per day:https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6
(everything is rounded to the nearest hundredth if that’s okay)
Sale 1: Sold for 21.99 On September 21.
Median price of a key that day was 1.84$.
21.99/1.84= ~11.95
Sale 2: Sold for 27.99$ on October 4th.
Median price of a key that day was 1.85$
27.99/1.85= ~15.13
Sale 3: Sold for 27.99$ on October 6th
Median price of a key that day was 1.87$
27.99/1.87= ~14.97
Sale 4: Sold for 29.99$ on October 26th.
Median price of a key that day was 1.83$
29.99/1.83= ~16.39
Sale 5: Sold for 29.99$ on December 6th.
Median price of a key that day was 1.76$
29.99/1.76= ~17.04
Since the first sale is invalidated by buyers and all of the sales are pretty much near the 15-17 key range, I think I’ll go with that
https://imgur.com/a/S5X3uHn
Also I just sold the one I had today for 15 keys and a ts paint, so that's about 16.35 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192627823#!/compare/1608076800/1608163200 - Sold for 12 Keys + 8.22 Refined
https://imgur.com/a/FZO7oli - 2 sellers at 14 Keys
https://backpack.tf/item/2729423963
https://backpack.tf/item/8719206554
17 looks to be high given the sellers and sellers at the times of each Marketplace sale (ranging between 12 and 14 Keys), so 14 - 16 Keys will work here.
Closing due to lack of response.
Few sales in these histories:
https://backpack.tf/item/1862695703
https://backpack.tf/item/7956561466
https://backpack.tf/item/7955807667
(Dunno what histories did you check so leaving these here)