Suggestion: Sunbeams Head of Defense at 35–37 keys

Sold for 35 keys pure. Buyer's inventory is very rarely updated. The 35 keys come from a bot, which indicates that they were bought and then immediately traded.

Sale 5:

https://backpack.tf/item/9194904745

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086914084#!/compare/1600646400/1600732800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997820009#!/compare/1600560000/1601164800

1:1 for Cloud 9 Federal Casemaker.

Mini for Cloud 9 Federal Casemaker:

Taking Oct-Dec: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30119;5;u58

Dec 9: $79.99 - $79.99 / $1.89 = 42.32 keys

Nov 29: $79.99 - $79.99 / $1.76 = 45.45 keys

Nov 15: $79 - $79 / $1.76 = 44.89 keys

Nov 11: $52.2 - $52.2 / $1.79 = 29.16 keys

Nov 10: $53 - $53 / $1.78 = 29.78 keys

Oct 28: $86.99 - $86.99 / $1.83 = 47.54 keys (countered: https://gyazo.com/e97457739b9d5d347b85bc5a9c0e38ef https://backpack.tf/item/7956354195)

Oct 16: $79.99 - $79.99 / $1.88 = 42.55 keys

While there are buyers above 29 keys and sellers below 45 keys, the average of a 29-45 key range is 37, which is very close to the current sellers. It is the most suitable.

Anything lower would be countered by the buyers and anything higher would be countered by the 40 key unsolds: https://gyazo.com/4c92c319b4803e16dd06adbd4fbfeaad

It must be recognised that these 35 key sellers have only been live for one day: https://gyazo.com/12bab8a509d635d92fdc6a7320b6f9b3

Pricing the Sunbeams Head Of Defense at 37 keys for this sale.

Sale 6:

https://backpack.tf/item/9194904745

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197997820009#!/compare/1606176000/1607558400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198450376899#!/compare/1606176000/1606262400

Not entirely traceable. A gifted Purple Energy Respectless Robo-Glove was involved, but given the listing on marketplace.tf for $40.76, I am excluding this sale. Looks too much like a QS without more information.

https://gyazo.com/0ae8055b503589ca8743c409ba9949d1

Sale 7:

https://backpack.tf/item/9194904745

https://i.imgur.com/2mFCnU5.png (credit to Shawarma chef)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198826314938#!/compare/1606176000/1606262400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198450376899#!/compare/1606176000/1606262400

1:1 for Cool Professional Killstreak Haunted Ghosts Shotgun (Field-Tested).

Mini for Cool Professional Killstreak Haunted Ghosts Shotgun (Field-Tested):

https://backpack.tf/item/7949962177

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113655603#!/compare/1604880000/1604966400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258937500#!/compare/1604793600/1604880000

Sold for Strange Festivized Professional Killstreak Australium Black Box + 11 keys (or 7??) + sweets (The All-Father, Veteran's Attire, Taunt: The High Five!).

Backpack.tf valuation of the sweets: https://gyazo.com/c497bff0913c11008eabe76f94a16f8e - 0.72+1.56+1.25=3.53 keys.

I do recognise that some of the prices are outdated, but these are going to be rounded anyway.

Micro for Strange Festivized Professional Killstreak Australium Black Box:

Taking all in-date sales: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/228;11;australium;kt-3;festive

Excluding anything higher than 25 and anything lower than 18.3: https://gyazo.com/28353c5994a08f353531818cddca3578

Dec 6: $38.5 - $38.5 / $1.76 = 21.88 keys (rounded to 21.9)

Nov 29: $55 - $55 / $1.76 = 31.25 keys (31.3) - excluded

Nov 9: $49.99 - $49.99 / $1.79 = 27.93 keys (27.9) - excluded

Nov 4: $120 - $120 / $1.80 = 66.67 keys (67) - excluded

Nov 3: $50 - $50 / $1.81 = 27.62 keys (27.6) - excluded

Nov 2: $45 - $45 / $1.82 = 24.73 keys (24.7)

Oct 30: $60 - $60 / $1.82 = 32.97 keys (33) - excluded

Oct 26: $30 - $30 / $1.83 = 16.39 keys (16.4) - excluded

Oct 7: $35.01 - $35.01 / $1.87 = 18.72 keys (18.7) - lowest

Oct 4: $119 - $119 / $1.85 = 64.32 keys (64) - excluded

Sep 30: $66 - $66 / $1.83 = 36.07 keys (36) - excluded

Sep 28: $46 - $46 / $1.85 = 24.86 keys (24.9) - highest

Sep 25: $46 - $46 / $1.85 = 24.86 keys (24.9)

Sep 18 $43.3 - $43.3 / $1.85 = 23.41 keys (23.4)

Sep 16: $43.3 - $43.3 / $1.85 = 23.41 keys (23.4)

Sep 13: $40 - $40 / $1.87 = 21.39 keys (21.4)

Sep 12: $40 - $40 / $1.88 = 21.28 keys (21.3)

Taking range of 18.7-24.9 keys (21.8 keys)

21.8+11+3.53=36.33, rounded to 36 keys.

Valuing the Sunbeams Head Of Defense at 36 for this sale.

Sale 8:

https://backpack.tf/item/9194904745

https://i.imgur.com/3PJldrW.jpeg https://imgur.com/a/qVTnqy4 (credit to Shawarma chef)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198826314938#!/compare/1607299200/1607472000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199071478193#!/compare/1606780800/1607558400

Sold for 35 keys pure.

Conclusion:

We have three sales at 35, one sale at 37, and one sale at 36. Using all three sales gives us a range of 35-37 keys.