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One with recent history
Sale 1:
https://backpack.tf/item/8159008692
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048724906#!/compare/1601251200/1601337600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198007696852#!/compare/1601078400/1601337600
1:1 for Miami Nights Whirly Warrior.
Mini for Miami Nights Whirly Warrior:
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30118;5;u61
Sep 19: $35 / $1.87 = 18.72 keys (countered: https://gyazo.com/a5846005092b54480870ba785b19227c)
Oct 12: $59.99 / $1.88 = 31.91 keys
Nov 15: $59.95 / $1.76 = 34.06 keys
Taking 32-34 keys, or 33 keys.
Sale 2:
https://backpack.tf/item/8159008692
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198007696852#!/compare/1602979200/1603152000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055622215#!/compare/1603065600/1603238400
1:1 for Haunted Ghosts Frag Proof Fragger.
Mini for Haunted Ghosts Frag Proof Fragger:
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5fd1c37cdb50a275d26fddc9
30 keys.
Sale 3:
https://backpack.tf/item/8159008692
https://i.imgur.com/nYi3qf5.png https://i.imgur.com/goS5BQY.jpg (credit to Shawarma chef)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198826314938#!/compare/1603411200/1603497600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055622215#!/compare/1603411200/1603497600
Sold for 22 keys pure.
Sale 4:
https://backpack.tf/item/8159008692
https://i.imgur.com/3PJldrW.jpeg https://imgur.com/a/qVTnqy4 (credit to Shawarma chef)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198826314938#!/compare/1607299200/1607472000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199071478193#!/compare/1606780800/1607558400
Sold for 25 keys pure.
Conclusion:
22-33 keys. Nothing is an outlier.
Sale 2 is being excluded from this suggestion. Turns out 20 keys were added alongside the Airdog for the Frag Proof Fragger. I'm going to use this as a mini for that suggestion instead.
I think your whirly mini is high here, https://bot.tf/stats/listings/MV61GJR6 many sellers ~25 at the time of the sale.
I don't see 25 in sale 4, looks like bulk for 58 pure. Unless there is proof they valued the airdog at 25 and the Head of Defense at the rest, I would just go 22 flat.
60-35=25 for sale 4. I talked to the seller directly. I can resuggest at 22-25 if you think that's suitable.