Suggestion: Steaming Modest Metal Pile of Scrap at 11 keys

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Mini for Nuts n Bolts Nickel

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/8673961299

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198356084152#!/compare/1606780800/1606867200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037674114#!/compare/1605657600/1606867200

Untrace

Sale 2

Excluding sales to and from qs.store

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/8012827018

Sale 3

Excluding sales to and from stn

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094602985#!/compare/1608249600/1608336000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101318752#!/compare/1608249600/1608336000

Untrace, key histories have not updated

Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/7861506208

Sale 5

Excluding trades to and from mannco.store

Sale 6

Excluding trades to and from qs.store

No mini possible

Current Listings

https://prnt.sc/w6a459

Seller for 10 keys

Seller for 11 keys

Buyers at 9 keys or so

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Marketplace sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30001;5;u36

Oct 19th - $26 / $1.87 = 13.90 keys

Nov 7th - $25.55 / $1.81 = 14.12 keys

Sales

11, 11, 11, 14, 14

Don't want to raise here

Taking 11 flat, thanks Scourge

40% of your sales are at 14 keys. Why is it not included?

Pretty positive that I asked in the bp discord at the time with help ranging this. Given 11 to 14 would raise the unusual, I didn't want to do that considering it would change the range on the tesal cranial.

This is a pretty weird case. First off, your reasoning behind going 11 flat is not good, not wanting to raise shouldn't be an impact on whether to include it or not. There are also a couple other considerations here.

First, there are many potential lower untrace sales:

https://backpack.tf/item/7861506208

https://backpack.tf/item/8673961299

https://backpack.tf/item/1655121393

https://gladiator.tf/listings/5fdeef26bfcbe15bdbd3aec1

SCM buyers are also up to around 12.3 keys. However from experience, these don't usually counter sales all that often because there is no arbitrage, selling one to the highest buyers would only get you ~10.7 after taxes, which is under 11. Overall I am fine calling the 14s high and the untrace sales around 9-10 low to balance, which makes 11 flat fine.