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~10.5 keys
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Unusual Modest Metal Pile of Scrap Steaming
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Mini for Tesla Coil Cranial


Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/9273474864

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198308990125#!/compare/1603843200/1603929600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198292137994#!/compare/1603843200/1603929600

Sold for Kill-a-Watt Teutonic Toque

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5fde925d91e3d24c3b61a958 - 10.5 keys


Taking 11 keys here


Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198292137994#!/compare/1606953600/1607040000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198018638320#!/compare/1603497600/1608336000

Sold for:

Stormy Storm Helmet Without a Home - https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5fde973300cf6801b505a8de - 9.5 keys

Taunt: Conga - 1.3 key sellers

Non-Craftable Tour of Duty Ticket - 0.5 keys


9.5 + 1.3 + 0.5 = 11.3 keys


Taking 11 keys


Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/7565374100

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198983568971#!/compare/1604361600/1604448000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195933333#!/compare/1604361600/1604448000

Sold to bot buy order, untrade


Sale 4

Moved to mannco


Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/7483352529

Sale 5

Moved off mp to bot


Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1606262400/1606348800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198982750268#!/compare/1607299200/1607299200

Sold for 11 keys and 1 ref


Item 4

https://backpack.tf/item/1655121393

Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198305866395#!/compare/1603238400/1603324800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1603238400/1603324800

3 keys match


Sale 8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002757046#!/compare/1603584000/1603670400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198260895929#!/compare/1603670400/1604361600

Sold for:

Nuts n' Bolts Noble Nickel Amassment of Hats - no mini possible

Strange Specialized Killstreak Sniper Rifle - 1.3 key sellers

Taunt: Buy A Life - 0.2 keys


Taking buyers it goes 9.2 + 1.3 + 0.2 = 10.7 keys which support the range I guess

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Mini for Nuts n Bolts Nickel


Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/8673961299

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198356084152#!/compare/1606780800/1606867200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037674114#!/compare/1605657600/1606867200

Untrace


Sale 2

Excluding sales to and from qs.store


Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/8012827018

Sale 3

Excluding sales to and from stn


Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094602985#!/compare/1608249600/1608336000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101318752#!/compare/1608249600/1608336000

Untrace, key histories have not updated


Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/7861506208

Sale 5

Excluding trades to and from mannco.store


Sale 6

Excluding trades to and from qs.store


No mini possible


Current Listings

https://prnt.sc/w6a459

Seller for 10 keys

Seller for 11 keys

Buyers at 9 keys or so

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Marketplace sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30001;5;u36

Oct 19th - $26 / $1.87 = 13.90 keys

Nov 7th - $25.55 / $1.81 = 14.12 keys


Sales

11, 11, 11, 14, 14


Don't want to raise here


Taking 11 flat, thanks Scourge

    40% of your sales are at 14 keys. Why is it not included?

      Pretty positive that I asked in the bp discord at the time with help ranging this. Given 11 to 14 would raise the unusual, I didn't want to do that considering it would change the range on the tesal cranial.

        This is a pretty weird case. First off, your reasoning behind going 11 flat is not good, not wanting to raise shouldn't be an impact on whether to include it or not. There are also a couple other considerations here.


        First, there are many potential lower untrace sales:

        https://backpack.tf/item/7861506208

        https://backpack.tf/item/8673961299

        https://backpack.tf/item/1655121393

        https://gladiator.tf/listings/5fdeef26bfcbe15bdbd3aec1


        SCM buyers are also up to around 12.3 keys. However from experience, these don't usually counter sales all that often because there is no arbitrage, selling one to the highest buyers would only get you ~10.7 after taxes, which is under 11. Overall I am fine calling the 14s high and the untrace sales around 9-10 low to balance, which makes 11 flat fine.