https://backpack.tf/item/8561161278

bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198808272594#!/compare/1602374400/1603324800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198985727249#!/compare/1603152000/1603324800

untraceable/dumped to Quicksell.store

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198985727249#!/compare/1603324800/1603411200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1603411200/1603497600

Better for the Fountain of Delight Taunt: Rock, Paper, Scissors

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1605484800/1605571200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065692866#!/compare/1605571200/1606089600

Dumped back to Qucisell.store again

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065692866#!/compare/1606089600/1606953600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1606089600/1606176000

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1606867200/1606953600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198991204943#!/compare/1608336000/1608336000

https://backpack.tf/item/7331582085

Bulk:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090737788#!/compare/1606003200/1606176000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1606089600/1606176000

https://backpack.tf/item/6735054352

Sold on Marketplace.tf November 14

https://backpack.tf/item/5808030557

withdrawn from Marketplace.tf by the seller

https://backpack.tf/item/5514816777

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198197482130#!/compare/1587340800/1603584000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1603584000/1603670400

https://backpack.tf/item/4927164567

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059688964#!/compare/1601337600/1603497600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158568880#!/compare/1603497600/1603584000

deposited & withdrawn from Marketplace.tf by same user

https://backpack.tf/item/3539307860

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198257809473#!/compare/1604102400/1604188800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963500354#!/compare/1604102400/1604188800

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963500354#!/compare/1604188800/1604275200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199070403543#!/compare/1604188800/1604275200

5 keys 37.66 ref, 5.61 ~5.5 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199070403543#!/compare/1606867200/1606953600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198400492976#!/compare/1606867200/1607126400

https://backpack.tf/item/3099340471

Bulk for the Vivid Plasma Law

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198997003728#!/compare/1602892800/1603065600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1602806400/1602892800

untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1605398400/1605484800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102777012#!/compare/1605398400/1605484800

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102777012#!/compare/1607558400/1607644800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199088611814#!/compare/1607558400/1607644800

untrace/bulk:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199088611814#!/compare/1607644800/1607731200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210225228#!/compare/1607644800/1607731200

untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210225228#!/compare/1607990400/1608076800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199103740298#!/compare/1608076800/1608163200

https://backpack.tf/item/3007267592

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1604102400/1604188800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198238978676#!/compare/1604188800/1604275200

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198238978676#!/compare/1604188800/1604275200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198840347736#!/compare/1604188800/1604448000

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198840347736#!/compare/1605398400/1605484800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198882007496#!/compare/1608163200/1608336000

Marketplace.tf sales, September 23 isn't traceable https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1106;5;u3009

September 23: $10.69/1.85=5.78 ~6 keys

November 14: $8.28/1.79=4.63 ~4.65 keys

We have 4.65, 5.5 and 6

With buyers at 5.32 (generic) and 5.42 (this effect) we can safely say 4.65 is a low outlier

Going 5.5-6