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knifestorm coffin kit
knives fall on pyro hurts bad
cost six thousand keys
terrible haiku over
tarpit pay me to do this
History: https://backpack.tf/item/1251845882
Sale One
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1603843200/1603929600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198352104810#!/compare/1603756800/1603929600
https://gyazo.com/34fd57bec60b600d807c35c8fe5c790a
Duped Sunbeams Blighted Beak Mini
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198232041512#!/compare/1602633600/1602720000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056793885#!/compare/1602633600/1602720000
134 + 335 + 170 = ~640
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198352104810#!/compare/1605398400/1605657600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139370347#!/compare/1605571200/1605657600
482
Sales: 482, 640
Unsolds at 550
482
Duped Burning Flames Villain’s Veil AND Soldier’s Stash Mini
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198969122505#!/compare/1604966400/1605139200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198969122505#!/compare/1604966400/1605139200
https://gyazo.com/4ac977006b9d69607603d22ba1ab63c0
400 for Belt, 600 for Stash, 600 for Veil
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199070258736#!/compare/1605052800/1605139200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198969122505#!/compare/1604966400/1605139200
Veil added Professional Aussie Scatter (52) for PE Noh (749), sale is 700
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1605484800/1605571200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199070258736#!/compare/1605484800/1605571200
Veil + Vivid Rack (233) + Magic Broom (37 buyers) for Time Warp Veil (850)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1600646400/1600732800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198399031554#!/compare/1600646400/1600732800
Time Warp Veil then resold for Burning Belt
700 sale on Veil resold for less, taking 600 for Duped BF Veil and 600 for Duped BF Stash
Duped Burning Flames Defiant Spartan Mini
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157230219#!/compare/1601510400/1601683200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198357428287#!/compare/1601510400/1601683200
71
Green Energy Gauzed Gaze Mini
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1606348800/1606435200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198197324337#!/compare/1606435200/1606608000
Bonk (90) + Grimm Hatte (MP sales: 122, 135, 137, 153) = 220
Veil (600) + Beams Beak (482) + Vivid Beak (220) + Spartan (71) + Gaze (220) + Lucky Shot (125) + Sensei (298) + Stash (600) + Tossle (160) + Western Wear (110) = 2886
Sale Two
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1604102400/1604188800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258595884#!/compare/1604188800/1604275200
Duped CC HH Harvest Moon Pyromancer’s Mask Mini
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105071091#!/compare/1601424000/1601596800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258595884#!/compare/1604188800/1604275200
150 pure + Escorter (30) + Hot Dogger (38) + Steaming Mancer’s (90) + GFetti Mancer’s (120) + PE Mancer’s (535) = ~950
Duped Eerie Orbiting Fire Coffin Kit Mini
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1604275200/1604361600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198309178418#!/compare/1604275200/1604361600
3500-950 = 2550
https://gyazo.com/8275f72f611d96f8b0dc7d737dc13e85
2500 buyout
2500
Eerie Coffin (2500) + Scorching Banana (2000+) + Harvest Mancer’s (950) + Burning Mancer’s (478) + DBD Mancer’s (362) = 6300+
https://gyazo.com/42dc525dc16e5efb2cd5e2055a2621a0
6000 buyout
6000
Sales: 2886, 6000
Taking the terrible 2900-6000
Since when is a dupe eerie coffin more than a clean one??
Taking 2100 for the coffin would still cap
Hmoon mancers also has sellers for much lower
Spelled justifies it maybe
sounds like laziness
Past sale also supports 6000 being high here
With that huge of a range, wouldn’t it be better to either figure out which of the two is an outlier or leave it outdated? The high end is over double the low end. Downvoted this one anyway.
a bigger range has happened: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5d845051d3817225645fc3e6
My thoughts would be the same for that one too. Why it was accepted I don’t really understand.
Do you know what the buyout was on the 2900 sale?
I see the burning Noh was linked here as comparable case, but there's a fairly substantial difference between the two situations:
The noh had no other sales; its last sale was well over 2 years before the first of the used sales there occurred. On this one, the second-most recent sale was only a little over 4 months before - not that much longer than our regular window within which we evaluate sales. It should be noted that there, it took about two years to sell for the listed amount, which would advocate 6000 being an outlier. I am aware that this does not fully hold as within the two years it took, the halloween market has changed significantly.
The time that took to sell aside - it shows that in the recent past, a third data point would support 2900 much more than 6000. It's why I'd be interested to know if this was listed, and if so at how much, before it sold at 2900. If it was listed at less than 6000 it makes for hard evidence that 6000 is too high here.
Another noteworthy difference between this and the noh case is that on the noh, the low end sale was already a substantial raise over its previous value. This in particular is often something that tips the scales in favor of updating with a ridiculous range as opposed to leaving outdated - the more desperate the times, the more desperate the measures. In this case, the low end sale is on par with its current value - in fact the noh's low end sale was further off its previous value than this has ever fluctuated ever since it was priced in keys. This means that there is less incentive to resort to something crazy, like we did on the noh.
The things above considered make me much more convinced that leaving this outdated is a better choice than repricing this with this range. As an alternative when you wish to update this now, I would be more inclined to go with 2900 flat based on the above evaluation than I would be to get the full range. I will stress here once more that the burning Noh should be seen as highly exceptional, and should not be used as a de facto template for how to deal with discrepant sales. I have tried to emphasize the differences here as much as I could in order to clarify that.
I would see either of the aforementioned two options as better than this range here.
https://gyazo.com/9bfecf085ce9deca5d7d6ffb0f5df8b5
Would be extra supportive evidence that 6000 is the outlier here.
Some other info I managed to get:
Sunjar recently offered tar (current owner) a good 5000+ in unusuals.
https://gyazo.com/eff3e689e9e2233b8ff3422c2348fd86
tar gave Indust the same offer he gave Sunjar but without the Harvest Moon mancer's.
https://gyazo.com/4895d5f09632e256672fd402eaf322c5
Both of these suggest that 6000 isn't an outlier, given how the coffin kit sold within days of listing and how Sunjar is willing to pay close to the 6000 sale again to flip.
Would this change anything?
would be ridiculous to use that sale here
going hat by hat
nimbus head prize has sales at ~550 and ~2500, with the 2500 sale having a buyout of 2000. any attempt at pricing this would be meaningless, but id go with 550 being the more reasonable valuation of it because it went almost an entire month of being suggested with no comments or any drama.
green energy balloonihoodie has no recent sales, and the only sales it has had have been $700 and $1100 to my knowledge, so lets put that at ~500 keys.
pumpkin party snowmann was listed at $900 on mptf by the previous owner before selling to sunjar for presumably cash
https://gyazo.com/ed7819500547636914e6a2746e9869bd
scorching pyromask indate at 494
bubble pipe indate at 152
icefall patriot peak ~360, old price but seems to be holding up
d@d tc undercutters down to 314
PE aztec old af price at 409, but no recent sales whatsoever
galactic gateway truckers priced at 170 in open sugg https://backpack.tf/suggestion/601183d2a1ebf76aaa703eea
ill just say fuck it and put knifestorm glove at 250 even tho its super high https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Respectless%20Rubber%20Glove/Tradable/Craftable/43
add all those up,
550 + 500 + 500 + 494 + 152 + 360 + 314 + 409 + 170 + 250 = 3699, nowhere even close to the high end of the range
this is also assuming that you can get prices out of the first three hats, which you can't
i wouldn't use this as trustworthy evidence whatsoever
The offer means absolutely nothing, at most it would mean he's trying to get it from the user he sold it to for less by throwing high numbers around (assuming its even about this hat because the screenshot does not show who he's offering or what he's offering on) ;p
The second detail does not not really mean anything either - if anything it would imply the 6000 sale would be seen as less than 4000 pure since someone asking for that amount did not take it.
Note that any uncertainties portrayed here would point towards leaving outdated, not towards including 6000.