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~10615 keys
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Unusual Coffin Kit Knifestorm
23 votes up
11 votes down
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knifestorm coffin kit

knives fall on pyro hurts bad

cost six thousand keys


terrible haiku over


tarpit pay me to do this


History: https://backpack.tf/item/1251845882


Sale One


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1603843200/1603929600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198352104810#!/compare/1603756800/1603929600

https://gyazo.com/34fd57bec60b600d807c35c8fe5c790a


Duped Sunbeams Blighted Beak Mini

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198232041512#!/compare/1602633600/1602720000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198056793885#!/compare/1602633600/1602720000

134 + 335 + 170 = ~640


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198352104810#!/compare/1605398400/1605657600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139370347#!/compare/1605571200/1605657600

482


Sales: 482, 640


Unsolds at 550

482


Duped Burning Flames Villain’s Veil AND Soldier’s Stash Mini

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198969122505#!/compare/1604966400/1605139200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198969122505#!/compare/1604966400/1605139200

https://gyazo.com/4ac977006b9d69607603d22ba1ab63c0


400 for Belt, 600 for Stash, 600 for Veil


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199070258736#!/compare/1605052800/1605139200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198969122505#!/compare/1604966400/1605139200

Veil added Professional Aussie Scatter (52) for PE Noh (749), sale is 700


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1605484800/1605571200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199070258736#!/compare/1605484800/1605571200

Veil + Vivid Rack (233) + Magic Broom (37 buyers) for Time Warp Veil (850)


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125791160#!/compare/1600646400/1600732800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198399031554#!/compare/1600646400/1600732800

Time Warp Veil then resold for Burning Belt


700 sale on Veil resold for less, taking 600 for Duped BF Veil and 600 for Duped BF Stash


Duped Burning Flames Defiant Spartan Mini

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157230219#!/compare/1601510400/1601683200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198357428287#!/compare/1601510400/1601683200

71


Green Energy Gauzed Gaze Mini

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1606348800/1606435200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198197324337#!/compare/1606435200/1606608000

Bonk (90) + Grimm Hatte (MP sales: 122, 135, 137, 153) = 220


Veil (600) + Beams Beak (482) + Vivid Beak (220) + Spartan (71) + Gaze (220) + Lucky Shot (125) + Sensei (298) + Stash (600) + Tossle (160) + Western Wear (110) = 2886


Sale Two


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1604102400/1604188800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258595884#!/compare/1604188800/1604275200


Duped CC HH Harvest Moon Pyromancer’s Mask Mini


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105071091#!/compare/1601424000/1601596800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258595884#!/compare/1604188800/1604275200


150 pure + Escorter (30) + Hot Dogger (38) + Steaming Mancer’s (90) + GFetti Mancer’s (120) + PE Mancer’s (535) = ~950


Duped Eerie Orbiting Fire Coffin Kit Mini


https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139171368#!/compare/1604275200/1604361600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198309178418#!/compare/1604275200/1604361600


3500-950 = 2550


https://gyazo.com/8275f72f611d96f8b0dc7d737dc13e85

2500 buyout

2500


Eerie Coffin (2500) + Scorching Banana (2000+) + Harvest Mancer’s (950) + Burning Mancer’s (478) + DBD Mancer’s (362) = 6300+


https://gyazo.com/42dc525dc16e5efb2cd5e2055a2621a0

6000 buyout

6000


Sales: 2886, 6000


Taking the terrible 2900-6000

    Since when is a dupe eerie coffin more than a clean one??

      Taking 2100 for the coffin would still cap

        Hmoon mancers also has sellers for much lower

          Spelled justifies it maybe

            sounds like laziness

      Past sale also supports 6000 being high here

      With that huge of a range, wouldn’t it be better to either figure out which of the two is an outlier or leave it outdated? The high end is over double the low end. Downvoted this one anyway.

      Do you know what the buyout was on the 2900 sale?


      I see the burning Noh was linked here as comparable case, but there's a fairly substantial difference between the two situations:


      The noh had no other sales; its last sale was well over 2 years before the first of the used sales there occurred. On this one, the second-most recent sale was only a little over 4 months before - not that much longer than our regular window within which we evaluate sales. It should be noted that there, it took about two years to sell for the listed amount, which would advocate 6000 being an outlier. I am aware that this does not fully hold as within the two years it took, the halloween market has changed significantly.


      The time that took to sell aside - it shows that in the recent past, a third data point would support 2900 much more than 6000. It's why I'd be interested to know if this was listed, and if so at how much, before it sold at 2900. If it was listed at less than 6000 it makes for hard evidence that 6000 is too high here.


      Another noteworthy difference between this and the noh case is that on the noh, the low end sale was already a substantial raise over its previous value. This in particular is often something that tips the scales in favor of updating with a ridiculous range as opposed to leaving outdated - the more desperate the times, the more desperate the measures. In this case, the low end sale is on par with its current value - in fact the noh's low end sale was further off its previous value than this has ever fluctuated ever since it was priced in keys. This means that there is less incentive to resort to something crazy, like we did on the noh.


      The things above considered make me much more convinced that leaving this outdated is a better choice than repricing this with this range. As an alternative when you wish to update this now, I would be more inclined to go with 2900 flat based on the above evaluation than I would be to get the full range. I will stress here once more that the burning Noh should be seen as highly exceptional, and should not be used as a de facto template for how to deal with discrepant sales. I have tried to emphasize the differences here as much as I could in order to clarify that.

      I would see either of the aforementioned two options as better than this range here.

          Would be extra supportive evidence that 6000 is the outlier here.

            Some other info I managed to get:


            Sunjar recently offered tar (current owner) a good 5000+ in unusuals.

            https://gyazo.com/eff3e689e9e2233b8ff3422c2348fd86


            tar gave Indust the same offer he gave Sunjar but without the Harvest Moon mancer's.

            https://gyazo.com/4895d5f09632e256672fd402eaf322c5


            Both of these suggest that 6000 isn't an outlier, given how the coffin kit sold within days of listing and how Sunjar is willing to pay close to the 6000 sale again to flip.


            Would this change anything?

              would be ridiculous to use that sale here


              going hat by hat


              nimbus head prize has sales at ~550 and ~2500, with the 2500 sale having a buyout of 2000. any attempt at pricing this would be meaningless, but id go with 550 being the more reasonable valuation of it because it went almost an entire month of being suggested with no comments or any drama.


              green energy balloonihoodie has no recent sales, and the only sales it has had have been $700 and $1100 to my knowledge, so lets put that at ~500 keys.


              pumpkin party snowmann was listed at $900 on mptf by the previous owner before selling to sunjar for presumably cash

              https://gyazo.com/ed7819500547636914e6a2746e9869bd


              scorching pyromask indate at 494


              bubble pipe indate at 152


              icefall patriot peak ~360, old price but seems to be holding up


              d@d tc undercutters down to 314


              PE aztec old af price at 409, but no recent sales whatsoever


              galactic gateway truckers priced at 170 in open sugg https://backpack.tf/suggestion/601183d2a1ebf76aaa703eea


              ill just say fuck it and put knifestorm glove at 250 even tho its super high https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Respectless%20Rubber%20Glove/Tradable/Craftable/43


              add all those up,

              550 + 500 + 500 + 494 + 152 + 360 + 314 + 409 + 170 + 250 = 3699, nowhere even close to the high end of the range


              this is also assuming that you can get prices out of the first three hats, which you can't


              i wouldn't use this as trustworthy evidence whatsoever

                The offer means absolutely nothing, at most it would mean he's trying to get it from the user he sold it to for less by throwing high numbers around (assuming its even about this hat because the screenshot does not show who he's offering or what he's offering on) ;p


                The second detail does not not really mean anything either - if anything it would imply the 6000 sale would be seen as less than 4000 pure since someone asking for that amount did not take it.


                Note that any uncertainties portrayed here would point towards leaving outdated, not towards including 6000.