with sales at 71, 71, 80, 85, 110, the 110 sale looks like an outlier in comparison so 80 - 85 would make more sense there. this means that sale 2 would be 73 keys. since it went 135 -> 73, it should be fine to exclude both sales here and go 86 flat. given how close that is to the suggested price already and the fact that this has already been up for a month i will accept this as good enough.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198328282971#!/compare/1603929600/1604016000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199079170942#!/compare/1603929600/1604102400
Phosphorous Conjurer's Cowl + 50 keys
https://gyazo.com/982ce7b53e2169049cc65be3d843a4b5
Screenshot by seller
Sale = ~135 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199079170942#!/compare/1605139200/1605398400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198179712943#!/compare/1605225600/1605312000
Added Miami Nights Samur-Eye (18 keys) https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5f8c9e63f289ac18041b0d1f
for
10 keys + Frostbite Tartan Tyrolean (95 keys)
Sale = 87 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198179712943#!/compare/1605571200/1605657600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1605571200/1605657600
https://gyazo.com/0906c13de136387baf6ff3b528775c43
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5fe0105fe0ddf3245e2ae07d
Haunted Ghosts Jungle Wreath (83 keys) + pro KS unique tide turner (2.5 keys) = 86 keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1606262400/1606348800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132025352#!/compare/1605484800/1607212800
Isotope Spider Season Stickybomb FT https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/207;15;u702;w3;pk269;kt-3 $69.99 / $1.76 = 39.77 keys
Hot Cardboard Boxed Shotgun (Field-Tested) - has no mini
Kill-a-Watt Soldered Sensei - could get mini'd i guess
Pumpkin Party Handsome Handy - has 5 sales around 12-14 keys https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31129;5;u163
Strange Macaw Iron Bomber MW - Has no minis https://backpack.tf/item/9308277407
using only sale 2 and 3, since 135 resold for 87
stemming off a comment in this suggestion https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5fd39ea6defae17d9c222839 with fixed values
for this: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5fdd4b9a9e7d0a731849b4a2
with sales at 71, 71, 80, 85, 110, the 110 sale looks like an outlier in comparison so 80 - 85 would make more sense there. this means that sale 2 would be 73 keys. since it went 135 -> 73, it should be fine to exclude both sales here and go 86 flat. given how close that is to the suggested price already and the fact that this has already been up for a month i will accept this as good enough.