Suggestion 2. Squad 1.

Marketplace sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/227;5;u32

$21.81 / $1.85 = 11.79 keys (12)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-10-04

$27.14 / $1.85 = 14.67 keys (15)

https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-10-05

Possible history for either: https://backpack.tf/item/7624638621

Classifieds:

https://gyazo.com/479387ad8ddf4e90b6fb6e282aa32bec

2 sellers at 11.

Summary

Sales at 12 and 15.

Conclusion

15 is too high as there are 2 current sellers at 11, and 12 is probably high here as well, but it can be considered a conservative drop.

Going with a range of 11-12 here.