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Suggestion 55. Squad 1.
Sales
Bulk for Scorching Flames Scotch Bonnet
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117462039#!/compare/1605225600/1605312000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1605225600/1605312000
Marketplace sales
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30429;5;u62
October 1: $45 / $1.85 = 24.32 keys(24)
https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-10-01
Summary
Sale at 24.
Conclusion
Going with 24 here.
Sale 1 looks more like a mass-dump of hats onto bots to buy the scotch, but I agree it shouldn't be used.