Hmmm

Mini for Strange Hot Alpine War Paint (WW)

I think taking past 3 months on both SCM and MP

Marketplace sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/9258;5;uncraftable;td-167

From 02/10/20 onwards

Oct 3rd - $40.99 / $1.85 = 22.16 keys

Oct 3rd - $40.99 / $1.85 = 22.16 keys

Oct 3rd - $49 / $1.85 = 26.49 keys

Oct 4th - $55 / $1.85 = 29.73 keys

Oct 4th - $55 / $1.85 = 29.73 keys

Oct 4th - $48.51 / $1.85 = 26.22 keys

Oct 5th - $58 / $1.85 = 31.35 keys

Oct 6th - $56.99 / $1.85 = 30.81 keys

Oct 6th - $55.99 / $1.85 = 30.26 keys

Oct 9th - $53 / $1.86 = 28.49 keys

Oct 10th - $58 / $1.87 = 31.02 keys

Oct 15th - $41 / $1.88 = 21.81 keys

Oct 16th - $40 / $1.88 = 21.28 keys

Oct 17th - $41 / $1.88 = 21.81 keys

Oct 20th - $42 / $1.87 = 22.46 keys

Oct 23rd - $44 / $1.86 = 23.66 keys

Oct 24th - $44.44 / $1.86 = 23.89 keys

Oct 24th - $44 / $1.86 = 23.66 keys

Oct 27th - $44 / $1.85 = 23.78 keys

Nov 1st - $34 / $1.83 = 18.58 keys

Nov 3rd - $37 / $1.82 = 20.33 keys

Nov 5th - $44 / $1.81 = 24.31 keys

Nov 6th - $44 / $1.81 = 24.31 keys

Nov 6th - $31 / $1.81 = 17.13 keys

Dec 3rd - $34.5 / $1.76 = 19.60 keys

Dec 3rd - $34.5 / $1.76 = 19.60 keys

Dec 3rd - $34.5 / $1.76 = 19.60 keys

Dec 3rd - $34.5 / $1.76 = 19.60 keys

Dec 3rd - $40 / $1.76 = 22.73 keys

Dec 3rd - $41 / $1.76 = 23.30 keys

Dec 3rd - $44.44 / $1.76 = 25.25 keys

Dec 4th - $46 / $1.76 = 26.14 keys

Dec 6th - $49.99 / $1.76 = 28.40 keys

SCM sales

These are sort of weird since they take some kind of average from the day

Oct 2nd - $38.06 / $2.25 = 16.92 keys

Oct 3rd - $38.30 / $2.25 = 17.02 keys

Oct 4th - $40.55 / $2.26 = 17.94 keys

Oct 5th - $40.25 / $2.23 = 18.05 keys

Oct 6th - $38.54 / $2.23 = 17.28 keys

Oct 8th - $42.14 / $2.23 = 18.90 keys

Oct 9th - $45.97 / $2.22 = 20.71 keys

Oct 10th - $39.25 / $2.24 = 17.52 keys

Oct 11th - $42.70 / $2.27 = 18.81 keys

Oct 12th - $37.65 / $2.29 = 16.44 keys

Oct 13th - $37.86 / $2.30 = 16.46 keys

Oct 14th - $45.90 / $2.31 = 19.87 keys

Oct 15th - $41.09 / $2.33 = 17.64 keys

Oct 16th - $41.96 / $2.34 = 17.93 keys

Oct 18th - $38.44 / $2.33 = 16.50 keys

Oct 20th - $39.72 / $2.37 = 16.76 keys

Oct 21st - $34.50 / $2.36 = 14.62 keys

Oct 23rd - $34.49 / $2.33 = 14.80 keys

Oct 24th - $42.05 / $2.33 = 18.05 keys

Oct 25th - $31.37 / $2.33 = 13.46 keys

Oct 26th - $40.82 / $2.33 = 17.52 keys

Oct 28th - $41.37 / $2.34 = 17.68 keys

Oct 29th - $42.45 / $2.34 = 18.14 keys

Oct 30th - $33.77 / $2.27 = 14.88 keys

Oct 31st - $30.87 / $2.25 = 13.72 keys

Nov 1st - $29.85 / $2.24 = 13.33 keys

Nov 2nd - $30.84 / $2.25 = 13.71 keys

Nov 3rd - $31.65 / $2.29 = 13.81 keys

Nov 4th - $28.61 / $2.31 = 12.39 keys

Nov 5th - $27.59 / $2.34 = 11.79 keys

Nov 6th - $33.71 / $2.35 = 14.34 keys

Nov 7th - $34.94 / $2.34 = 14.93 keys

Nov 8th - $32.67 / $2.35 = 13.90 keys

Nov 9th - $27.44 / $2.37 = 11.68 keys

Nov 11th - $29.99 / $2.35 = 12.76 keys

Nov 12th - $30.41 / $2.35 = 12.94 keys

Nov 13th - $47.92 / $2.34 = 20.48 keys

Nov 14th - $34.81 / $2.36 = 14.75 keys

Nov 18th - $30.80 / $2.34 = 13.16 keys

Nov 19th - $36.59 / $2.34 = 15.64 keys

Nov 20th - $26.40 / $2.33 = 11.33 keys

Nov 21st - $26.65 / $2.32 = 11.49 keys

Nov 22nd - $25.29 / $2.33 = 11.12 keys

Nov 23rd - $27.91 / $2.35 = 11.88 keys

Nov 25th - $25.59 / $2.33 = 10.98 keys

Nov 26th - $27.53 / $2.29 = 12.02 keys

Nov 29th - $27 / $2.24 = 12.05 keys

Nov 30th - $36.86 / $2.23 = 16.53 keys

Dec 3rd - $36.74 / $2.22 = 16.55 keys

Dec 3rd - $29 / $2.23 = 13.00 keys

Dec 3rd - $37.42 / $2.23 = 16.78 keys

Dec 3rd - $29.23 / $2.25 = 12.99 keys

Dec 3rd - $37.61 / $2.21 = 17.02 keys

Dec 4th - $39.66 / $2.15 = 18.45 keys

Dec 4th - $40.37 / $2.18 = 18.52 keys

Dec 4th - $40.53 / $2.16 = 18.76 keys

Dec 4th - $43.90 / $2.11 = 20.81 keys

Dec 4th - $29.29 / $2.10 = 13.95 keys

Dec 4th - $43.22 / $2.10 = 20.58 keys

Dec 5th - $43.81 / $2.18 = 20.10 keys

Dec 5th - $49.88 / $2.15 = 23.20 keys

Dec 5th - $38.12 / $2.20 = 17.33 keys

Dec 6th - $46 / $2.21 = 20.81 keys

Dec 6th - $49.87 / $2.20 = 22.67 keys

Dec 7th - $43.05 / $2.16 = 19.93 keys

Dec 8th - $46.05 / $2.15 = 21.42 keys

Dec 11th - $27.70 / $2.07 = 13.38 keys

Dec 12th - $36.89 / $2.14 = 17.24 keys

Dec 13th - $30.05 / $2.10 = 14.31 keys

Dec 14th - $20.33 / $2.17 = 9.37 keys

Dec 15th - $30.03 / $2.14 = 14.03 keys

Dec 16th - $30.74 / $2.15 = 14.30 keys

Dec 17th - $24.50 / $2.21 = 11.09 keys

Dec 19th - $33.20 / $2.20 = 15.10 keys

Dec 19th - $34.65 / $2.21 = 15.68 keys

Dec 19th - $35 / $2.24 = 15.63 keys

Dec 20th - $36.22 / $2.23 = 16.24 keys

Dec 21st - $40.50 / $2.19 = 18.49 keys

Dec 23rd - $29.45 / $2.15 = 14.70 keys

Dec 24th - $40.95 / $2.15 = 19.05 keys

Dec 24th - $42.81 / $2.23 = 19.20 keys

Dec 26th - $31.05 / $2.33 = 13.33 keys

Dec 26th - $42.62 / $2.33 = 18.29 keys

Dec 27th - $42.83 / $2.33 = 18.38 keys

Dec 28th - $36 / $2.40 / 15 keys

Dec 28th - $29.80 / $2.35 = 12.68 keys

Dec 28th - $29.52 / $2.38 = 12.40 keys

Dec 30th - $29.90 / $2.44 = 12.25 keys

Dec 30th - $29.80 / $2.48 = 12.02 keys

Dec 30th - $38.03 / $2.47 = 15.40 keys

Dec 30th - $42.87 / $2.42 = 17.71 keys

Sales

Marketplace

22, 22, 26, 30, 30, 26, 31, 31, 30, 28, 31, 22, 21, 22, 22, 24, 24, 24, 24, 19, 20, 24, 24, 17, 20, 20, 20, 20, 23, 23, 25, 26, 28

SCM

17, 17, 19, 19, 17, 19, 21, 18, 19, 16, 16, 20, 18, 18, 17, 17, 15, 15, 18, 14, 18, 18, 18, 15, 14, 13, 14, 14, 12,12, 14, 15, 14, 12, 13,13, 20, 15, 13, 16, 11, 11, 11, 12, 11, 12, 12, 17, 17, 13, 17, 13, 17, 18, 19, 19, 21, 14, 21, 20, 23, 17, 21, 23, 20, 21, 13, 17, 14, 9, 14, 14, 11, 15, 16, 16, 16, 18, 15, 19, 19, 13, 18, 18, 15, 13, 12, 12, 12, 15, 18

Sales but ordered

Marketplace

17, 19, 20, 20, 20, 20, 20, 21, 22, 22, 22, 22, 22, 23, 23, 24, 24, 24, 24, 24, 24, 25, 26, 26, 26, 28, 28, 30, 30, 30, 31, 31, 31

SCM

9, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 14, 14, 14, 14, 14, 14, 14, 14, 14, 14, 15, 15, ,15 15, 15, 15,15, 15, 15, 16, 16, 16, 16, 16, 16, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 19, 19, 19, 19, 19, 19, 19, 19, 20, 20, 20, 20, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 23, 23

Scourge summarised it nicely here:

9

11 (x5)

12 (x9)

13 (x9)

14 (x10)

15 (x9)

16 (x6)

17 (x12)

18 (x12)

19 (x9)

20 (x9)

21 (x6)

22 (x5)

23 (x4)

24 (x6)

25

26 (x3)

28 (x2)

30 (x3)

31 (x3)

Given that the lowest seller on Marketplace is ~30 keys and the lowest seller on SCM is currently 15 keys, next highest is 20 keys after that low one

Taking a range fo 14 - 22 keys here, 17 - 24 keys, though where the median of all 124 sale here seems to be, is too high given the current market.

14 - 22 keys it is and any criticism appreciated here, I don't suggest unusualifiers often at all