I like Pyro

Nightmare suggestions

Sellers: - https://gyazo.com/b1d6d8d0f289c4989f807ffe2969af17

https://backpack.tf/item/9340420796 - 11 days @ 15 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/9288768721 - 3 days @ 16 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/9327032903 - 17 days @ 17 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/9295091301 - 17 days @ 20 keys

Sale 1)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070658066#!/compare/1607644800/1607817600 - Sold to a Quickbuyer, not sure what for https://gladiator.tf/listings/5fd5792ad77961ab2f61c79c

Sale 2)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142584166#!/compare/1607212800/1607731200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963500354#!/compare/1607644800/1607731200 - Sold via buy order for 12 keys + 21 ref = 12 keys

Note: - https://backpack.tf/item/9465614963 - Excluding tradeit.gg sales

Sale 3)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198350393897#!/compare/1609200000/1609286400 - Untrace

Sale 4)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198429047658#!/compare/1604275200/1608681600 - Untrace

Sale 5)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199034951012#!/compare/1605139200/1605398400 - SCM

Sale 6)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964546925#!/compare/1604275200/1604361600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198995660755#!/compare/1603929600/1604620800 - Untrace

Sale 7)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198131966769#!/compare/1605052800/1605225600 - Untrace

Sale 8)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121830870#!/compare/1603670400/1603756800 - Sold for 10 keys

Sale 9)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121830870#!/compare/1603584000/1603670400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082378911#!/compare/1603670400/1603756800 - Sold via buy order, unsure what for

Sale 10)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198208249865#!/compare/1603497600/1603670400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211114895#!/compare/1602547200/1604534400 - Sold for 16 keys via Scrap.tf auctions

Sale 11)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198336034192#!/compare/1605744000/1606867200

https://backpack.tf/item/9355543766 https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31128;5;u159

$45 / $1.77 = 25 keys

Sale 12)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198124431425#!/compare/1585785600/1603584000 - SCM

Note: - https://backpack.tf/item/9355543766 - Excluding loot.farm and tradeit.gg transfers

Sale 13)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220184643#!/compare/1603670400/1603756800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105196740#!/compare/1603670400/1603843200 - Untrace

Sale 14)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198928347702#!/compare/1603670400/1603756800 - Sold for 15 keys

Sale 15)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198323565601#!/compare/1603324800/1603411200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198928347702#!/compare/1603324800/1603411200 - Untrace

Note: - https://backpack.tf/item/9346850595 - Excluding scammer transfers and tradeit.gg transfers

Sale 16)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198826155796#!/compare/1603324800/1605657600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199008463566#!/compare/1603584000/1606521600 - Untrace

Note: - https://backpack.tf/item/9338918160 - Excluding owner/bot transfers, cs.deals, scammer and mannco.store transfers

Sale 17)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199013831827#!/compare/1608076800/1608768000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199105171998#!/compare/1608508800/1608595200 - Sold for a Non-Craftable Unusual Taunt: Second Rate Sorcery Unusualifier (~5.30) + 14 keys = 19 keys

No buyout traced

Mini for Unusualifier:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/9258;5;uncraftable;td-30816 - Sales ~$25 / $2.10 = ~12 keys - Look high since seller program had ended prior to this

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Taunt%3A%20Second%20Rate%20Sorcery%20Unusualifier

Sales around the time of the Helm Sale for ~£9.27 / £1.75 = 5.3 keys

Taking 5.3 keys as a mini as it seems more reasonable

Sale 18)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198250273778#!/compare/1608508800/1608595200 - Bulk as https://backpack.tf/item/2883917504 was involved I think

Sale 19)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198250273778#!/compare/1608422400/1608508800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094547455#!/compare/1608422400/1608508800 - Sold for a Smoking Brain Interface + 3 keys - Use there since loads of sales here, Brain will likely be around 9/10 keys making the sale 12-13ish as support

Buyout was 14.3 keys https://gladiator.tf/listings/5fdfd2523db31ed7ce96883f

Sale 20)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094547455#!/compare/1561593600/1607990400 - Untrace

Sale 21)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964546925#!/compare/1602374400/1602460800 - SCM?

Sale 22)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084284339#!/compare/1602806400/1602892800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094047037#!/compare/1602892800/1602979200 - Untrace

Sale 23)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198006062733#!/compare/1607817600/1608422400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061779536#!/compare/1608336000/1608422400 - Sold with an Astral Presence Taunt: The Skating Scorcher for a Starstorm Insomnia Nasty Norsemann - Better used there, possibly bulky here

Sale 24)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071879537#!/compare/1607644800/1607731200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061779536#!/compare/1607644800/1607731200 - Bulk

Sale 25)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137566942#!/compare/1606953600/1607212800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197972404012#!/compare/1607040000/1607212800 - Bulk

Sale 26)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097271466#!/compare/1603497600/1603584000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197972404012#!/compare/1603238400/1603584000 - Sold for 17 keys

Sale 27)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063101663#!/compare/1603324800/1603411200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097271466#!/compare/1603238400/1603411200 - Sold for 17 keys

Sale 28)

https://backpack.tf/item/9324000008 https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31128;5;u159

$39.50 / $1.83 = 22 keys

Sale 29)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093438754#!/compare/1603411200/1603497600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053575622#!/compare/1603411200/1604534400 - Untrace

Sale 30)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093438754#!/compare/1603324800/1603411200 - Untrace

Sale 31)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062324500#!/compare/1554336000/1607817600 - Untrace

Sale 32)

https://backpack.tf/item/9316737498 https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31128;5;u159 - Dates don't 100% match

Sale 33)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197964546925#!/compare/1602460800/1602547200 - Untrace

Sale 34)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198099243560#!/compare/1602028800/1602460800 - SCM

Sale 35)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156570751#!/compare/1603065600/1603152000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142120325#!/compare/1603238400/1603497600 - Untrace

Sale 36)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198957818192#!/compare/1602892800/1602979200 - Untrace

Sale 37)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136620070#!/compare/1602720000/1603238400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042911063#!/compare/1602633600/1602720000 - Bulk

Note: - https://backpack.tf/item/9302942667 - Excluding the tradeback

Sale 38)

https://backpack.tf/item/9297276444 https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31128;5;u159

$45 / $1.72 = 26 keys

Note: - https://backpack.tf/item/9297276444 - Excluding all of these transfers except the marketplace.tf one

Sale 39)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994095287#!/compare/1602892800/1607904000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101508611#!/compare/1606176000/1606262400 - Sold for 12 keys + 25 ref (>0.5 keys) = 13 keys

Sale 40)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198352410385#!/compare/1603497600/1603756800 - Sold via a Buy Order, not sure what for, 7 keys do match but that seems too low

Sale 41)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198352410385#!/compare/1602633600/1603324800 - Sold for a Vivid Plasma Human Cannonball - Use there since there's a lot of sales here, would support the high-end here

No buyout traced

Sale 42)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031748642#!/compare/1602806400/1603065600 - Sold via Buy Order, unsure what for, only 10 ref matches

Sale 43)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1602374400/1602460800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031748642#!/compare/1602460800/1602633600 - Untrace

Sale 44)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084753958#!/compare/1602028800/1602460800 - Sold via Buy Order, unsure what for

Note: - https://backpack.tf/item/9297018475 - Excluding owner --> bot transfer

Sale 45)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198104507776#!/compare/1604793600/1608163200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198966005698#!/compare/1607644800/1607904000 - Bulk

Note: - https://backpack.tf/item/9296111433 - Excluding tradeit.gg transfers

Sale 46)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152114850#!/compare/1602547200/1602806400 - Using there to price

Sale 47)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198257475779#!/compare/1602460800/1602547200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140677477#!/compare/1602460800/1602547200 - Sold for a Strange Professional Killstreak AWPer Hand (~23 keys) - https://gyazo.com/2717499df28558d51f0fed2159483829 = 23 keys

No buyout traced

Sale 48)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211647572#!/compare/1602201600/1602374400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198257475779#!/compare/1602115200/1602460800 - Quicksold for 28 keys

Sale 49)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077685361#!/compare/1605744000/1605916800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198146747975#!/compare/1605744000/1605830400 - Sold for a Circling TF Logo Neckwear Headwear + 2 keys - Seems high here and low there. More than likely would cap at buyout but it's not traceable

No buyout traced

Sale 50)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198146747975#!/compare/1605657600/1605744000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271957615#!/compare/1605744000/1605830400 - Untrace

Note: - https://backpack.tf/item/9292845360 - Excluding these transfers to and from mannco.store bot

Sale 51)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199103818277#!/compare/1608249600/1608336000 - Untrace

Sale 52)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160513092#!/compare/1606262400/1607990400 - Untrace

Sales 53 - 60)

$50 / $1.88 = 27 keys

$44.16 / $1.87 = 24 keys

$36.67 / $1.84 = 20 keys

$37 / $1.83 = 20 keys

$34.36 / $1.81 = 19 keys

$45 / $1.80 = 25 keys

$38.02 / $1.77 = 21 keys

$45 / $1.77 = 25 keys

Sales:

10, 12, 13, 15, 16, 17, 17, 19, 19, 20, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 25, 25, 26, 27 and 28

Calling 10-13 low due to excluding a lot of higher data points, lots of higher sales support excluding these low ones

Calling 21+ high due to unsolds, including SCM unsolds ~15 keys, most higher sales were marketplace.tf also which tend to be inflated slightly

Many thanks to the mod's and AJ's help with determining this range, it was a stinker!

Thanks =)