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Sale 1:
https://backpack.tf/item/3170655776
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5fceb8dae1214a731109cf9d
405 keys. Considerably lower than the next sale and it's countered by a 500k buyer. https://gyazo.com/8605ae98bcd75ef0653efc124239d62d
Excluding.
Sale 2:
https://backpack.tf/item/3170655776
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083134207#!/compare/1609718400/1609804800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076639682#!/compare/1609718400/1609804800
600 keys + Smoking Specialized Killstreak Antlers.
Antlers are valued at 400 keys: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5ffaca9ce2a63738c96ea78a
Spec KS can add nothing because the B/O was 1000 keys: https://gyazo.com/1482e4f0090d82dfcb55077ec35c576a
500 buyer is himself
Yeah, which still counters the 405 keys.
His buy order at 500 can't counter his purchase at 405 in favor of his sale at 1000
The rules of classified listings state that one can quite happily make a listing for a very limited stock item if they're 100% willing to purchase the item at that value. The fact that he's willing to purchase the item for 500 shows that 405 is too low.
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EDIT: Here's the rule in question. It's not exactly the same (not a 1:1), but it still applies IMO:
I own a 1 of 1 hat, can I still make a buy order for that hat (assuming there could be one more out there in a private inventory)?
Yes, you can make a buy order as long as you intend to honor it. If it's proven that you made it to manipulate other buy orders, you will be banned.
https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/53663-guide-for-reporting-on-the-main-site/#comment-644337
Ill leave this to someone else
New buyer at 520 and oddfuture has upped theirs to 530.
Buy order created after suggestion
And yet you'd be saying "buyer at 520, low end may be too low" if I included it.
...no, with such a big "range", this is best to be left outdated
It sold for 1000 in a month.
manipulation at its finest is all this is
What are you talking about? 😂 I'd give my buyorder price for it anytime
sure. because u made that much profit in pure. this is a joke. love to see what buy orders were b4 this
Why'd I have placed a buyorder on it when i owned it? Other one is prolly never for sale so... whats ur point ?
https://gyazo.com/3d31ff6b907ff630dc367c498c30592e - 3 buyers at >500.
Still https://gyazo.com/2ea8cec03aad9c8cd27e42eab69238d2
Okay so this is another one of those cases, but an even more extreme one.
First of all, to address the buy order clownfiesta we see here:
I disagree with using those for suggestion purposes. Not saying the buy orders are manipulative (I have no idea if they were made with such intent, and have no reason to believe they are), but what I am saying is that they are meaningless here. Two of these exist; one is not for sale and he just sold the other one for this amount; the buy order won't buy anything, and if it does, it will buy the one that sold here and that would make 1000 an outlier/unusable sale.
Similar to how we dont raise with buy orders on unusuals; as an example:
I would 100% be willing to pay 500 pure, possibly even more, for a hellfire conqueror. I could make a buy order at that value, but it will never buy one, since one is locked in an unreachable person's backpack, and I own the other one. Even though I would genuinely be willing to pay 500, the buy order I'd make would be completely meaningless.
The same applies here; his buy order does not really mean anything in this scenario.
Before anyone counters that with "but there are more buy orders.."
The other buy orders we have seen are an overcutter and someone that made a meme order (just look at the description, lol). Other buy orders barely even suggest current is low.
So, no - ruling out sales here based on buy orders does not really work here.
So that leaves us with what to do with this situation, and to me its fairly clear that this should be left outdated, since these sales are simply too far apart. Since I assume this is the part where everyone is going to bust out their burning noh and c9 banana suggestions and what have ya as examples, I will already address that one here too:
Usually when sales are too far apart, we wait for a third sale. Ranges of the nature 65-100 (based on 2 data points) are already thin-ice on hats with larger markets and are generally left up to see if there's more.
There have been a few exceptional cases where hats sold at ranges that in normal situations would simply not be acceptable (ones where the range would almost get as large as the low end value), and in very particular cases we have allowed such ranges to be set as an absolute last resort.
I believe when we handled the c9 banana (which was the first case in which we allowed such a crazy range). When we discussed that, we've given ourselves a threshold at the point where the low end is half the high end, or - to put it differently - where the range is 100% of the low end. It should be noted that this was a unique situation, a huge exception to our normal way of handling suggestions.
Then later, we've had a few cases that tested our resolve; I remember some bonzo hat where I offered a similar way out, even though the sales were 99 and 200, which is technically over the threshold. I figured it couldn't hurt to let that one slide.
I've seen the boundaries being pushed to situations where the range became ~107% of the low end (on the burning noh), but I think its time to draw the line somewhere. If need be, I'll incorporate a hard cutoff in the rules even for exceptions, but here, the range is 150% of the low end and that's simply going too far for me. I've emphasized it in this comment already, but Im going to stress again that all the possible examples you could send here that were accepted and are close to this situation, they are already the most exceptional of the rule exceptions, and they should not be mistaken for a standard for comparisons.
tl/dr
This range is too much of a stretch for me and this should remain outdated until it sells again.
Hey, I appreciate the time it must've taken to write out this response. I'm willing to close it but I'd just like to raise some points of contention that you didn't address, just for discussion.
This is an old hat with only two in existence with a high-tier effect that can no longer be unboxed. This will be a two of two forever. I understand the comparison you made with the Burning Flames Noh etc, but those are "just" gen one effects; they're still unboxable. As such, it'd be incorrect to end up with a preposterous price because there's technically an unlimited supply. I understand full well that the chance of unboxing such a hat is very low, but the change is still >0.
Here, we have a purchase at 405 and a sale at 1000 less than a month later. Unfortunately I don't know how long it was selling at 405, but the fact that OddFuture flipped it for over 100% of the profit in less than a month demonstrates, at least to me, that 405 is much too low and shouldn't be included in the range regardless our precedent with other high-tier items with large ranges.
And here's the crux of my issue: this is a two of two with one usable item history that will likely not be traded again for a while. The current price is six years old and is 15% of what the value should display. Closing this suggestion could indeed result in a price being unchanged for near a decade when we could update it to something that's in the realm of its modern-day price today. The effect page for Bonzo has this hat as the eighteenth cheapest. In reality, it's the eighth most expensive.
Let me reiterate that I don't disagree with the basis of your analysis, but I'm not ruling the 405 sale out only because of buy orders; I'm ruling it out because for all intents and purposes, it's a quicksell. I'll default to you and I'll close if need-be, but I do think it's a mistake to leave this one outdated.
You cannot reject something as a quicksale like that; you yourself even said that you did not know how long it took to sell.
The largest flaw in most of your points here is that everything is built around the assumption that 1000 is the right value (instead of the other way round, where everything points towards it being the right value), while in reality, the fact that we dont know if that is the case is why this does not work. For instance, you're fully basing the "quicksale" tag on the first sale on that it was flipped for more, but what if 1000 was just a lucky sale?
The same goes for the second argument - you assume that because it was flipped for 1000, 400 is too low, but it could just as well be that 1000 was just an extravagant collectors purchase, which are not uncommonly far above what anyone else would pay. Anything done in this regard is a guess, and you can't really make an objective decision with them.
The same goes for the last argument here. The tier comparison you present, where you say that "in reality" it is the 8th most expensive bonzo, puts this amidst the mid-high tier allclasses and some miscs, while its a mid-tier heavy only hat. That tier comparison does not at all say 1000 is the right value. In fact, your tier comparison would make this the most expensive heavy hat by a landslide, even surpassing any heavy misc (except for the sleeveless). Looking at the bonzos: All other heavy hats would actually imply 400 is a more appropriate value here, so if that would bear any weight here it would actually point towards 1000 as the outlier. Of course, on something as unpredictable as bonzo hats, this does not work for a plethora of reasons, but I find it odd it's listed here as an argument for 1000.
The first argument is not necessarily a wrong one, but the conclusions drawn are not justifiable. Rarity is definitely taken into consideration and the more are available, the less likely we are to resort to something as crazy as any of the examples you'll find, but actually that's primarily because these cases never occur in more common items.
For this, it does not really matter to us if an item is discontinued or not, save for maybe very new items (and even there we wait and see if we get more and if we dont we end up making a decision based on the current situation). We cant close a suggestion because 'there is a possibility that one gets unboxed to tip the scales'. Who is to say bonzo isn't re-released at some point? In your own words, that chance is >0.
In addition, I'm relatively sure that unusual nohs are also discontinued; even if unofficially - I dont think I've ever witnessed one being unboxed in the time I've worked for (or even have been using) this site. Besides, that's more of an argument against those cases rather than one for this case.
That leaves us with the crux of the arguments (the bonzo tier comparison notwithstanding). Aside from the fact that the math is severely off (in that 15% is a fully arbitrary number as it does not coincide with any of the potential values, and most definitely not with the suggested), this is exactly why such insanely ranging sales are so bothersome. Lets take the hypothetical case that 400 would have been the correct value, but it is suggested at 1000. In this case, 1000 is much further off the "real" value than 66 is. Say we take the insane range of 400-1000; it would represent such an insane margin of error (700+- 300, which we can't really represent in our values).
Of course you cant work with these numbers in a statistical manner because there are too few data points, and this is a problem in general with these huge ranges, which brings us back to the case I have based my arguments on in this particular scenario. I'm fine with larger ranges, especially on hats with multiple sales to go by, or new hats that have a bunch of sales, where it would be really hard to set a value if going by potential counter evidence, but I do think that there should be a limit somewhere. If this continues, eventually we'll reach the point where our sales are 200 and 2000. The question is then: where do we draw the line? and for me, even in the case of extreme exceptions, it has always been the point where the range becomes larger than the low end. The 99-200 case was one that was justifiable by rounding, but then eventually, people will start to see the extraordinary exceptions to already existing rule exceptions as the new standard, and when the next range is 98-200 they will say "but its almost the same".
Its also why Im not a fan of granting leniency regarding the 3 month cutoff for sale validity in most single sale cases even though that is an arbitrarily determined period of time. If its only one day, you could argue there's no harm, and then 2-4 days - who cares. But then its a week and people will say "thats only a few days more than this 4 day case, so its probably fine". Eventually there'll be a point where we say no, and people will feel mistreated and point to the exceptions saying "but why was this accepted then?".
I feel like the same in happening right now with this rule exception, and I dont like where this is heading. Thats why im currently discussing with the other moderators if we should incorporate an absolute maximum acceptable range, which I feel is needed right now, for cases just like this one.