Sale #1

Marketplace Sell on 20th September for 500€

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/337;5;u14

Keyprice on the date 1.75€ = 285 Keys

Sale #2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107042866#!/compare/1606608000/1606694400

https://gyazo.com/f524c1e1d33556f646741ab55d925f8f

265 (Doppler) + 60 (Pith Helmet) + 40 (Dome) + 5 Keys = 370

Going with 370

Sale #3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198879412409#!/compare/1605484800/1605744000

180 (Stahlhelm) + 21 (Spiky Viking) + Hellfire Stately Steel Toe (100) = 301

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105071091#!/compare/1606608000/1606780800

bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106869848#!/compare/1599523200/1599696000

bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063475894#!/compare/1602028800/1602201600

bulk

Minis:

Steaming Crone's Dome

Sale #1-2

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/920;5;u36

Sold on the 25th nov for 80€ -- Key price: 1,76€

Sold on the 15th sep for 84€ -- Key price: 1,86€

45,45 - 45

Sale #3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198817647410#!/compare/1606176000/1606348800

Sold for 38 Keys

Sale #4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107042866#!/compare/1606003200/1606089600

Sold for ~ 37,3 Keys

Sale #5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198405876629#!/compare/1604620800/1604793600

Sold for 37 Keys

Sale #6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198040224815#!/compare/1603584000/1603670400

Sold for 35 Keys

Average of 39,6

Going with 40

Scorching Flames Lord Cockswain's Pith Helmet

Sale #1-2

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/439;5;u14

Sold on the 5th nov for 120€ -- Key price: 1,8€

Sold on the 4th nov for 110€ -- Key price: 1,8€

66,6 Keys - 61,1Keys

Taking 64 Keys

Sale #3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961976244#!/compare/1606262400/1606435200

Sold for 44

Sale #4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199046064612#!/compare/1604707200/1604793600

Sold for 50 Keys

Sale #5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198028457339#!/compare/1570924800/1571011200

Sold for a Disco Beat Down Brotherhood of Arms (78)

Note:

To support the range: I got offered 60 Keys almost immediately after I traded for it. Proof:

https://gyazo.com/5e148455eae32bd8f85d23a1f06371fd

Taking 60 Keys

Karambit Doppler

Taking Sales from SCM: https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/730/%E2%98%85%20Karambit%20%7C%20Doppler%20(Factory%20New)?l=german

Sale #1

Sold on 3.12.2020 for 580,14€

Key Price to that time: 1,86€

= 311,9 Keys

Sale #2-9

Sales on 2.12.2020:

438,42€, 494,58€, 489,79€, 435,11€, 486,3€, 476,55€, 489,79, 466,6 average of 472,14€

Average Key Price to that time: 1,83€

= 258 Keys

(Mine was a Phase 4 Float: 0.008 if anyone wants to know ^.^)

(8/9) * 258 + (1/9) * 311,9 = 263,98

Taking 265 for the Doppler.

Hellfire Stately Steel Toe

Sale #1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041832347#!/compare/1604966400/1605052800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067741299#!/compare/1604966400/1605052800

Sold for Burning Flames Blast Defense (103) + Soldier's Stash (1)

Going with 105

Sale #2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045551697#!/compare/1604793600/1605052800

Sold for duped Purple Energy Tyrant's Helm (95)

Sale #3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087558444#!/compare/1604188800/1604275200

Sold for 100 Keys

Going with 100 for the Toe

Burning Flames Blast Defense

Sale #1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198859721638#!/compare/1604102400/1604188800

Sold for 98 Keys

Sale #2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050052801#!/compare/1605398400/1605484800

Sold for 101 Keys

Sale #3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198087175689#!/compare/1605398400/1605484800

Sold for 113 Keys

Sale #4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097499917#!/compare/1604361600/1604448000

Sold for 110

Sale #5-6

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30863;5;u13

Sold on the 3rd nov for 175€ -- Key price: 1,81€

Sold on the 1st nov for 177€ -- Key price: 1,82€

Taking 97

Average Price of 102,6

Taking 103

Duped Tyrants Helm

Sale #1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358440232#!/compare/1604534400/1604620800

Sold for 95 keys

Disco Beat Down Brotherhood of Arms

Sale #1-5

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30066;5;u62

Sold on the 23th nov for 180€ -- Key price: 1,75€ => Sold for 102,85

Sold on the 8th nov for 86€ -- Key price: 1,81€ => Sold for 47,5

Sold on the 3th nov for 180€ -- Key price: 1,81€ => Sold for 99,44

Sold on the 22th oct for 180€ -- Key price: 1,85€ => Sold for 97,3

Sold on the 6th nov for 90€ -- Key price: 1,79€ => Sold for 50,27

Average Price of: 79,47

Going with 79,5 Keys

Sale #6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198018055115#!/compare/1602547200/1602806400

Sold for 60 Keys

Sale #7-8

https://gyazo.com/abf2361ba5e4494fb180909c1eba2bcc

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198396499936#!/compare/1604534400/1604620800 - 74

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198396499936#!/compare/1604793600/1604880000 - 95

Average Price of: 84,5

(5/8) * 79,5 + (1/8) * 60 + (2/8) * 84,5 = 78,31

Rounding to down to 78

Thanks to Scourge for some advices

Feedback is appreciated

~Andro

Copy & Paste

Addition from ShufflySpy:

New sales:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198353865610#!/compare/1609372800/1609459200 - Added 50 Keys for an RA Warmer + Misty BWW + SBTWC BWW

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198846276257#!/compare/1609113600/1609200000 - Added 12 Keys for an Atomic Space Mann (325 Keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198846276257#!/compare/1609459200/1609545600 - Spellbound Halogen + 55 Keys (fits in range here and there)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137934248#!/compare/1610409600/1610496000 - Salty has no sales

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105071091#!/compare/1610150400/1610236800 - 352 Keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140316312#!/compare/1606435200/1606521600 - Stormy 13th Modest + ~90 to 130 Keys of Items

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140316312#!/compare/1609891200/1609977600 - The Modest sold for ~260 to 300 Keys of Items

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/337;5;u14 - Sold for $888.88 (high)

The SBTWC Brain-Warming Wear has no sales, so that sale can be excluded for this.

https://imgur.com/a/pmQLNOZ - Oli believes his buyout for the Phantom was 375, so his sale will be capped at that.

Now the sales are 300, 313, 352, 370, and 375. Since buyers are up to 300 Keys, a range of 315 - 375 will work here.