Suggestion: Orbiting Fire Le Party Phantom at 60–70 keys - backpack.tf

Price Suggestion

~120.5 keys

o.fire

13 votes up

9 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Sun, 24 Jan 21 03:23:25 +0000 by the submitter.

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Comments

Misc unusual minimal activity, going back 3mo. Most recent previous suggestion is 12mo.

Marketplace.tf:

2020-11-24, Item sold $124.99, https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/337;5;u33

------ Median key that day: $1.76, https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

------ -> 71.01 keys

------ (disclaimer, my purchase)

2020-10-26, Item sold $119.95, https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/337;5;u33

------ Median key that day: $1.83, https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

------ -> 65.55 keys

No other dollar sale records I could find.

Backpack.tf classifieds:

-Current buy orders are at 56.01 keys https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Le%20Party%20Phantom/Tradable/Craftable/33

Trades all Unclear. Here is an exhaustive list.

------ https://backpack.tf/item/630431534

------------ jan 11, unclear

------------ https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035991719#!/compare/1610236800/1610323200

------------ https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1610236800/1610323200

------------ nov 13, unclear

------------ https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1605139200/1605225600

------------ https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1607212800/1607299200

------ https://backpack.tf/item/613165165 (this one is a total mess)

------------ nov 16, unclear

------------ https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199098694108#!/compare/1605484800/1605571200

------------ https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075593258#!/compare/1605312000/1605484800

------------ nov 6, unclear

------------ https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199010987801#!/compare/1604534400/1604620800

------------ https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075593258#!/compare/1604534400/1604620800

------------ nov 5, unclear

------------ https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199010987801#!/compare/1604361600/1604534400

------------ https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122047130#!/compare/1603670400/1604534400 (item doesnt show up at all)

------------ nov 5, unclear

------------ https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1604448000/1604534400

------------ https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122047130#!/compare/1603670400/1604534400

------------ nov 2-3, unclear

------------ https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841796245#!/compare/1604275200/1604361600 (item does not show up)

------------ https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1604448000/1604534400

------------ oct 27, unclear

------------ https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199029666024#!/compare/1603756800/1603843200

------------ https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1603756800/1603843200 (item does not show up)

------ https://backpack.tf/item/1488542941, unclear

------------ https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096728454#!/compare/1601164800/1602460800 (item doesnt show up at all)

------------ https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198868927746#!/compare/1599436800/1611360000 (item doesnt show up at all)

------ https://backpack.tf/item/1644115088, unclear

------------ https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994095287#!/compare/1611014400/1611360000 (item doesnt show up at all)

------------ https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030376160#!/compare/1611187200/1611273600 (item doesnt show up at all)

(My first suggestion, feedback welcome)

why is the range 60-70 if your sales are 65.5 (so 66) and 71?

I was trying to account for the active buy orders being more than 10% below 65.5, and a lack of confidence since there so few datapoints, and the datapoints being old. What would you suggest? 66-71?

Well yea, thats how price suggestions work for the most part. We dont lower the range because buy orders are under 60

Can the mods adjust based on this discussion to that range or does the suggestion need to be closed and reopened.

Also "unclear" is not a valid reason to ignore sales. Erick and Long Bottom clearly exchanged pure. If you have to manually check every history, ya gotta do it (referring to the jan 11 sale here)

Unless I missed something, which I very well may have, there's multiple transactions that go into untracked backpacks that makes it impossible to run down the precise items exchanged.

Normally you need to close and re-suggest. Closing a suggestion by yourself will have no impact on your suggestion accuracy on your bp profile.

i replied to the wrong comment with that lol

for this one, yes some sales are untraceable. But if you check the histories of the jan 11 sale, the keys DO match. Therefore we should validate the sale either by counting them all or asking for a steam trade screenshot from the seller/buyer

Got it. I will close and rundown. Thank you for the feedback.