History 1: https://backpack.tf/item/9700707389

Buyer got trade banned, must be a reason for it

History 2: https://backpack.tf/item/9150602917

first sale is a tradeback

Bulk:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198340634356#!/compare/1609286400/1609372800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050062763#!/compare/1608768000/1609372800

Bulk:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050062763#!/compare/1609545600/1609891200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198890990852#!/compare/1609804800/1609891200

3 keys 1.44 ref ~3 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198890990852#!/compare/1609891200/1609977600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043721011#!/compare/1609891200/1609977600

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043721011#!/compare/1609977600/1610064000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198798182095#!/compare/1609891200/1609977600

History 3: https://backpack.tf/item/7845530537

2 tradebacks

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198023051867#!/compare/1608768000/1608940800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129037187#!/compare/1609891200/1611446400

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129037187#!/compare/1609891200/1611446400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198890990852#!/compare/1611360000/1611446400

History 4: https://backpack.tf/item/6963500023

Bulk:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198866732642#!/compare/1608076800/1608163200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198985727249#!/compare/1607731200/1608163200

Untraceable/dumped to STN.tf

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198985727249#!/compare/1608163200/1608249600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1608163200/1608249600

3 keys 18.11 ref ~3.35 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1610668800/1610755200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138190930#!/compare/1610668800/1610755200

History 5: https://backpack.tf/item/6909873994

tradebacks

History 6: https://backpack.tf/item/6862822208

Tradebacks

3 keys:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121830870#!/compare/1607731200/1607817600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198307717039#!/compare/1607558400/1607817600

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198307717039#!/compare/1609113600/1609200000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198309261884#!/compare/1608508800/1610236800

History 7: https://backpack.tf/item/6839294039

before it was unusualified:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199055274432#!/compare/1604793600/1604880000

before it was unusualified:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198151100389#!/compare/1604880000/1604966400

before it was unusualified:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198259733876#!/compare/1604880000/1604966400

History 8: https://backpack.tf/item/6730881397

0.66 ref matches:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090952225#!/compare/1603843200/1603929600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1603843200/1603929600

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1608508800/1608595200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198929880146#!/compare/1604793600/1608595200

History 9: https://backpack.tf/item/6719942716

Untraceable/dumped to Quicksell.Sttore:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199097591806#!/compare/1610668800/1610755200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1610668800/1610755200

History 10: https://backpack.tf/item/6700372502

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198807703094#!/compare/1604534400/1606521600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048610662#!/compare/1604534400/1604620800

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048610662#!/compare/1606867200/1607472000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198300444953#!/compare/1607040000/1607558400

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198300444953#!/compare/1607558400/1607644800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334598690#!/compare/1607385600/1607644800

rest is tradebacks

History 11: https://backpack.tf/item/6316972552

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198856835115#!/compare/1606089600/1608076800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1606089600/1606176000

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1606953600/1607126400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026091923#!/compare/1606694400/1609200000

History 12: https://backpack.tf/item/6253088142

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198966743333#!/compare/1606521600/1606780800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069707880#!/compare/1606608000/1606694400

Bulk:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069707880#!/compare/1608681600/1608768000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000091310#!/compare/1608595200/1608768000

Bulk:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000091310#!/compare/1610582400/1610928000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1610582400/1610668800

last sale is a transfer

History 13: https://backpack.tf/item/6253028370

21 ref matches:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110619795#!/compare/1607385600/1607472000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199088611814#!/compare/1607299200/1607385600

Bulk:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199088611814#!/compare/1607385600/1607472000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210225228#!/compare/1607385600/1607472000

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198210225228#!/compare/1608940800/1609113600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199051988869#!/compare/1605830400/1609804800

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199051988869#!/compare/1609804800/1611532800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1609804800/1609891200

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1609891200/1609977600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199086507251#!/compare/1606348800/1611187200

History 14: https://backpack.tf/item/6252835279

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199097591806#!/compare/1610668800/1610755200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1610668800/1610755200

History 15: https://backpack.tf/item/6252820412

Bulk

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280693486#!/compare/1608163200/1608249600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198167996672#!/compare/1609372800/1609545600

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198167996672#!/compare/1609545600/1609718400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069146785#!/compare/1609545600/1609632000

Marketplace.tf sales: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30876;5;u3003

October 29: $8.45/1.84=4.59 ~4.6 keys

December 22: $6.99/2.04=3.43 ~3.45 keys

January 17: $12.9/2.11=6.11 ~6.1 keys

Sales at 3, 3, 3.35, 3.45, 4.6, 6.1

Young seller at 3.07 just appeared while I was making the suggestion https://backpack.tf/item/7845530537

Seller at 4.52 keys https://backpack.tf/item/6253088142

Seller at 5 keys for 5 months https://backpack.tf/item/6534024073

6.1 is obviously a high outlier given the unsold at 5.

4.6 is gonna look high with the two other sellers, it's also a Marketplace.tf sale

3-3.45 looks pretty consistent, going with that