History 1: https://backpack.tf/item/9427559158

Bulk for the Death at Dusk Prancer's Pride

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198347277672#!/compare/1605571200/1605657600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105830896#!/compare/1605398400/1605571200

3 keys:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105830896#!/compare/1605571200/1605657600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198840892967#!/compare/1605657600/1606435200

History 2: https://backpack.tf/item/9314741557

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198251704884#!/compare/1605657600/1605744000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199043683552#!/compare/1605484800/1607731200

History 3: https://backpack.tf/item/5373609348

2 keys 46 ref, 2.92 ~2.9 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097271466#!/compare/1609718400/1609804800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043721011#!/compare/1609718400/1609891200

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043721011#!/compare/1609891200/1609977600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199107845011#!/compare/1609718400/1611014400

History 4: https://backpack.tf/item/3887788897

Untraceable (incomplete backpack histories)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198334684029#!/compare/1601251200/1605225600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037414818#!/compare/1610928000/1610928000

History 5: https://backpack.tf/item/3774747822

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198383468878#!/compare/1591488000/1608595200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963500354#!/compare/1608508800/1608595200

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963500354#!/compare/1608595200/1608681600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198420267257#!/compare/1608595200/1608768000

History 6: https://backpack.tf/item/3667248005

3 keys:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198205338192#!/compare/1604016000/1604275200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088822281#!/compare/1603929600/1604016000

Marketplace.tf sales: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30614;5;u3045

November 9: $6.8/1.8=3.78 ~3.8 keys

November 15: $6.74/1.78=3.79 ~3.8 keys

November 16: $7.42/1.77=4.19 ~4.2 keys

November 22: $7.35/1.75=4.2 keys

November 23: $7.35/1.75=4.2 keys

January 25: $10/2.1=4.76 ~4.75 keys

Sales at 2.9, 3, 3, 3.8, 3.8, 4.2, 4.2, 4.2, 4.75

2.9-4.75 looks wide. 3 and 4.2 look like the most common trading points so excluding 2.9 and 4.75 to narrow the range

Going 3-4.2

Oops I missed the Mannco.Store sales: https://mannco.store/item/26105

December 23: $5.5/1.68=3.27 keys

January 2: $5.75/1.84=3.13 keys

Both these sales fall in-range so I'll leave this up