History 1: https://backpack.tf/item/9718405106

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170869099#!/compare/1610841600/1611100800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198827347982#!/compare/1611014400/1611100800

Untraceable/SCM sale:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198827347982#!/compare/1611187200/1611360000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030589062#!/compare/1611100800/1611273600

4 keys 12 ref, 4.23 ~4.25 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198030589062#!/compare/1611705600/1611792000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102407070#!/compare/1611705600/1611792000

History 2: https://backpack.tf/item/9570077200

Bot transfers

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116849874#!/compare/1609977600/1610064000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199082181914#!/compare/1610755200/1610755200

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199082181914#!/compare/1610755200/1610755200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198795826430#!/compare/1610668800/1610755200

History 3: https://backpack.tf/item/8558767068

49.77 ref matches:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155970048#!/compare/1611014400/1611446400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1610928000/1611014400

7 ref matches:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1611705600/1611792000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050518375#!/compare/1611705600/1611792000

History 4: https://backpack.tf/item/8411454354

0.55 ref matches:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1604102400/1604188800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200635879#!/compare/1549411200/1606003200

History 5: https://backpack.tf/item/7703663935

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198894420168#!/compare/1606608000/1611792000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198297290429#!/compare/1606521600/1606867200

History 6: https://backpack.tf/item/6411057424

Strange Festivized Professional Killstreak Kukri matches, this is gonna be below buyers

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198296976070#!/compare/1606953600/1607299200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053763933#!/compare/1607212800/1607299200

13 ref matches:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053763933#!/compare/1607299200/1607558400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198208249865#!/compare/1604448000/1607472000

History 7: https://backpack.tf/item/6398652648

a bot transfer

5 keys - 18.11 ref, 5-0.35=4.65 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1610064000/1610150400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198796704263#!/compare/1610064000/1610150400

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198796704263#!/compare/1610150400/1610236800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198022041768#!/compare/1610064000/1610150400

Bulk for the Circling Heart Janissary Ketche

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198022041768#!/compare/1610409600/1610496000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198149211008#!/compare/1610409600/1610496000

4 keys 14 ref, 4.26 ~4.25 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198149211008#!/compare/1610582400/1610668800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198996387442#!/compare/1610323200/1610668800

History 8: https://backpack.tf/item/6279629545

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1610064000/1610150400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285887364#!/compare/1610064000/1610150400

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285887364#!/compare/1610150400/1610236800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063910085#!/compare/1610150400/1610236800

2 keys 7.11 ref, 2.14 ~2.15 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063910085#!/compare/1611705600/1611792000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140953055#!/compare/1611705600/1611792000

History 9: https://backpack.tf/item/6269198260

a key matches:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058259594#!/compare/1604880000/1606521600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198151161624#!/compare/1596758400/1606694400

History 10: https://backpack.tf/item/6254387031

0.55 ref matches:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198289040457#!/compare/1609632000/1609718400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199099031605#!/compare/1609459200/1609718400

History 11: https://backpack.tf/item/6253844744

Untraceable:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026640869#!/compare/1606176000/1608336000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047546898#!/compare/1604102400/1610755200

History 12: https://backpack.tf/item/6252759768

Looks like a trade before it was unusualified:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116848524#t9528870763

Marketplace.tf sales: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30876;5;u3006

November 16: $7.92/1.77=4.47 ~4.45 keys

November 20: $8/1.75=4.57 ~4.55 keys

December 21: $8.99/1.2.01=4.47 ~4.45 keys

January 10: $8.99/2.12=4.24 ~4.45 keys

Mannco.Store sale: https://mannco.store/item/496

December 17: $5/1.6=3.13 ~3.15 keys

Sales at 2.15, 3.15, 4.25, 4.25, 4.45, 4.45, 4.45, 4.55, 4.65

Buyers up to 4.32, 2.15-3.15 is gonna be too low

Seller at 4.54 is unbumped and is stating in their description that they're actually selling lower, just listing higher to avoid undercuts. I don't think we can fully rely on this seller, they also haven't bumped their listing since it was listed (https://backpack.tf/item/6398652648)

Despite the buyers, gonna include 4.25 because it's a fairly common trading point and lower sales support including it. Including 4.65 because it was pure

Going 4.25-4.65