Study

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/9293903908

Sale 1

Moved between qs bots

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1609459200/1609545600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1609372800/1609459200

Bought off qs.store, untrace, couldn't find any buyout on gladiator snapshots

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/7957419574

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198018177887#!/compare/1607558400/1607644800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1607558400/1607644800

Bulk

Sale 4

Moved to bot

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1609632000/1609718400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198376710380#!/compare/1608681600/1609804800

Untrace

Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/7957416804

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107543618#!/compare/1608854400/1609113600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1608768000/1608854400

Untrace

Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1609372800/1609459200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1609372800/1609459200

Untrace

Sale 8

Bought off MP

Item 4

https://backpack.tf/item/4931435949

Sale 9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198879945899#!/compare/1609113600/1609200000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1609027200/1609113600

15 keys 16 ref match

https://gladiator.tf/listings/5fea8a22b96c359b97c63c55 - buyout 16 keys 25 ref

Taking 15 keys here?

Item 5

https://backpack.tf/item/2250307251

Sale 10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051509552#!/compare/1607644800/1609027200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199048089644#!/compare/1608768000/1610323200

Untrace

Sale 11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199048089644#!/compare/1609027200/1609113600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1609027200/1609113600

16.66 ref matches

Sale 12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1609113600/1609200000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198993686702#!/compare/1609113600/1609200000

Untrace, likely qbought off qs.store then listed on tftrade.net, or sold there

Sale 13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198993686702#!/compare/1609545600/1609632000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093542297#!/compare/1596412800/1611619200

Untrace

Sale 14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093542297#!/compare/1611619200/1611792000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198445132129#!/compare/1611619200/1611705600

17 keys match

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6012096e4a6781bb361e5708 - buyout 19 keys

Not enough data from the past 2 months to draw a range

Going back 3 months

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/9293903908

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165577691#!/compare/1605225600/1605571200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1605484800/1605571200

Sold for 14 keys 4.11 ref

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198267189538#!/compare/1606435200/1606521600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1606435200/1606521600

Bulk QS

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/4931435949

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341969000#!/compare/1606348800/1606435200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198879945899#!/compare/1606262400/1606348800

Sold for 15 keys 6.22 ref

Marketplace sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/921;5;u57

Nov 6th - $39.99 / $1.81 = 22.09 keys

Nov 26th - $31.99 / $1.75 = 18.28 keys

Jan 4th - $59.99 / $2.11 = 28.43 keys

Sales

15, 17, 14, 15, 22, 18, 28

Sales but ordered

14, 15, 15, 17, 18, 22, 28

Current Listings

https://prnt.sc/xtdaxc

Seller at 25 keys

2 on marketplace for $59.99 - https://prnt.sc/xtdbjp

Buyers at 16.6 keys

Either I go 15 - 22 keys to take into consideration as many sales as possible

Or I narrow it to 17 - 22 keys instead.

17 - 22 keys it is

https://scrap.tf/auctions/7A73OC

Sold for 19 keys 26 ref

Supports my range

Another sale:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/921;5;u57

Feb 6th - $59.99 / $2.1 = 28.57 keys

Taking 29 keys

Excluding, high