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Study
Item 1
https://backpack.tf/item/7957028776
Sale 1
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047437575#!/compare/1605225600/1608076800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198967088046#!/compare/1605744000/1605830400
Bought off SCM
Sale 2
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198967088046#!/compare/1609372800/1609545600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024662535#!/compare/1608854400/1609632000
Untrace
Item 2
https://backpack.tf/item/2783428885
Sale 3
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202111664#!/compare/1611100800/1611187200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204215085#!/compare/1611100800/1611187200
Bulk for Twinkling Lights Taunt: Mannrobics
Sale 4
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198204215085#!/compare/1611187200/1611273600
Untrace
https://gladiator.tf/listings/600a1ff53fdefa371e29c099 - buyout 16 keys
Likely sold for 16 keys to be resold on marketplace
Marketplace sales
Nov 23rd - $32.63 / $1.75 = 18.65 keys
Jan 1st - $39.99 / $2.13 = 18.77 keys
Sales
16, 19, 19
Taking 16 - 19 keys
Jan 30th - $39.99 / $2.10 = 19.04 keys
Sticking at this price for now
16 isn't traceable and sold in <1 day, this should be 19 flat unless I am missing something.
My assumption is Erik paid full pure as he typically does. I'll see if I can get any screenshots