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https://backpack.tf/item/6986495222
Sale 1) Sold + 7 Keys for a Cloud 9 Whirly Warrior (21.5 Keys)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062017881#!/compare/1606089600/1606176000
The Cloud 9 Whirly was updated a week before this sale happened, so this'll be low.
Sale 2) Sold for $34.99 when Keys were ~$2.01 each
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30118;5;u7
34.99 / 2.01 = 17.4, which rounds to 17 Keys
Sale 3) Sold for 13 Keys
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/763844620916228096/808923401859104809/image0.png
Sale 4) Sold for 20 Keys
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199119484218#!/compare/1610236800/1610323200
https://backpack.tf/item/9346364202
Sale 5) Sold for $34.99 when Keys were ~$1.85 each
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30118;5;u7
34.99 / 1.85 = 18.9, which rounds to 19 Keys
Going with 19 - 20 as a conservative drop, since the person who paid 17 dumped it for 13 Keys.
Credits to Shuffle
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059098316#!/compare/1614211200/1614384000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024031980#!/compare/1614211200/1614384000 - sold for 39 keys (looks like a clear outlier compared to the other sales)
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083328505#!/compare/1613260800/1613347200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123378599#!/compare/1613174400/1613347200 - sold for Electrostatic Triboniophorus Tyrannus (can be used there)