Today I woke up

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/9490625457

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198151783319#!/compare/1606521600/1606780800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454615761#!/compare/1606694400/1606780800

27 ref matches

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454615761#!/compare/1606780800/1606867200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454615761#!/compare/1606694400/1606780800

Untrace

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126437284#!/compare/1607817600/1608422400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1607731200/1607817600

Untrace

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1609200000/1609286400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198891995174#!/compare/1608854400/1609286400

5 keys 18.33 ref matches

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198891995174#!/compare/1610409600/1610668800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198296629305#!/compare/1610409600/1610582400

Untrace

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198296629305#!/compare/1611014400/1611619200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004429398#!/compare/1611446400/1611878400

Untrace

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/8754417956

Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156025460#!/compare/1606348800/1606867200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122540102#!/compare/1606348800/1606694400

10 keys match, 16 leave buyers inventory

I think some got sold on SCM to purchase the Non-Tradable Screaming Tiger Taunt: Bad Pipes

Taking 16 keys here

Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/8520211005

Sale 8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083493324#!/compare/1607040000/1607126400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199106217370#!/compare/1607212800/1607299200

Untrace

Sale 9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199106217370#!/compare/1607299200/1607385600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199106874758#!/compare/1607731200/1607817600

Untrace, likely missing a person inbetween

Sale 10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199106874758#!/compare/1608336000/1608422400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199070343685#!/compare/1607990400/1609286400

Untrace, likely missing person again, paid 15 keys then redumped very quickly afterwards

Sale 11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199070343685#!/compare/1609286400/1609459200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094602985#!/compare/1609372800/1609632000

Untrace

Sale 12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094602985#!/compare/1609632000/1610582400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199021491704#!/compare/1609718400/1609804800

Untrace

Sale 13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199021491704#!/compare/1609891200/1609977600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1609804800/1609891200

Sold for:

Massed Flies Backbiter's Billycock

44 ref

I'm wary of using this sale due to it being an item sale from stn, meaning that the translator was valued at buy orders, or even less.

Sale 14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1609977600/1610064000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198253284840#!/compare/1608595200/1612396800

Untrace

Item 4

https://backpack.tf/item/8450127031

Sale 15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198217101891#!/compare/1606176000/1606262400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1606089600/1606176000

7.77 ref matches

Sale 16

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1606348800/1606435200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080606609#!/compare/1606262400/1606348800

Untrace

Sale 17

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198080606609#!/compare/1606348800/1606435200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198847460633#!/compare/1606348800/1606435200

Untrace / gambling

Sale 18

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198847460633#!/compare/1606435200/1606521600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1606348800/1606435200

Untrace

Sale 19

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1607299200/1607385600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198010742559#!/compare/1607299200/1607385600

Untrace

Item 5

https://backpack.tf/item/8052384031

Sale 20

Excluding trades to and from tradeit

Item 6

https://backpack.tf/item/7825439003

Sale 21

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049845322#!/compare/1610668800/1611100800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1610582400/1610668800

0.33 ref matches

Sale 22

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1611273600/1611360000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199117812013#!/compare/1611360000/1611446400

Untrace

Sale 23

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199117812013#!/compare/1611360000/1611446400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1611360000/1611446400

10 keys 6.66 ref matches

Sale 24

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1611446400/1611532800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199053349396#!/compare/1610150400/1613174400

Sold for 16 keys

Item 7

https://backpack.tf/item/7816079169

Sale 25

Sold on Mannco

Sale 26

Excluding tradeit

Item 8

https://backpack.tf/item/7520740096

Sale 27

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136403937#!/compare/1594512000/1607731200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198129552058#!/compare/1607558400/1607731200

Bulk for Strange Spellbound A Well Wrapped Hat

Sale 28

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199029736015#!/compare/1611964800/1612051200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199048854415#!/compare/1611964800/1612051200

Sold for 15 keys

Sale 29

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199048854415#!/compare/1612051200/1612137600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1611964800/1612051200

Untrace

Sale 30

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1612310400/1612396800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199047865465#!/compare/1611964800/1612396800

Sold for 14 keys

Item 9

https://backpack.tf/item/7493673664

Sale 31

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199040744579#!/compare/1606780800/1606867200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454615761#!/compare/1606694400/1606780800

Untrace

Sale 32

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198454615761#!/compare/1606780800/1606867200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197968633696#!/compare/1606694400/1606867200

Untrace

Sale 33

Sold on MP

Item 10

https://backpack.tf/item/7375563624

Sale 34

Missing a person in between qs.store and stn bot

Sale 35

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1607644800/1607731200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158419271#!/compare/1607644800/1607731200

Sold for 11 keys 108.33 ref

Taking 13 keys here

Sale 36

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158419271#!/compare/1610064000/1610496000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053171686#!/compare/1609718400/1610582400

Untrace

Item 11

https://backpack.tf/item/7176072024

Sale 37

Bought off MP

Sale 38

Excluding tradeit sales

Item 12

https://backpack.tf/item/7090748465

Sale 39

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199098694108#!/compare/1610150400/1610236800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043881379#!/compare/1610064000/1610236800

Sold for 16 keys

Item 13

https://backpack.tf/item/7013329468

Sale 40

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198274006629#!/compare/1608681600/1609200000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199033816705#!/compare/1605916800/1609200000

Bulk BP buy

Sale 41

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177872379#!/compare/1609286400/1609372800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198407285258#!/compare/1609113600/1609891200

Sold for 13 keys

Item 14

https://backpack.tf/item/5111583839

Sale 42

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1606003200/1606089600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198817088867#!/compare/1605744000/1606262400

Untrace

Sale 43

Excluding trades with scammers

Sale 44

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198225694412#!/compare/1609632000/1609718400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199044174137#!/compare/1610064000/1610236800

It would appear to have been bulk for Circling Heart Noble Amassment of Hats

However, the buyer comparison is broken

Excluding

Sale 45

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199044174137#!/compare/1610064000/1610236800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198826438700#!/compare/1610150400/1610582400

SCM

Sale 46

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198826438700#!/compare/1610668800/1611014400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199125237893#!/compare/1610928000/1611014400

Untrace

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Magnetic%20Hat%20Protector%20Universal%20Translator - seems to have been ~13 keys

Taking 13 keys

Sale 47

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199125237893#!/compare/1612742400/1612828800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1612656000/1612742400

Untrace

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60215550a4cf2dde919fc3cb - buyout 15 keys 12 ref

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Magnetic%20Hat%20Protector%20Universal%20Translator - it would suggest 15 keys

Not going to take 15 keys off the basis that there is one sale recorded on stats already at 15 keys which I believe was Ash's bot

Item 15

https://backpack.tf/item/4757405764

Sale 48

Sold on MP

Sale 49

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872652071#!/compare/1606521600/1606608000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063372917#!/compare/1606521600/1606608000

Untrace

Sale 50

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063372917#!/compare/1606608000/1606953600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1606521600/1606608000

Untrace

Sale 51

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1609632000/1609718400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199000669345#!/compare/1609372800/1609804800

https://prnt.sc/zdobc1

Sold for 14 keys 4 ref

https://gladiator.tf/listings/5ff36f8257c6991f12ce412d - buyout was 14 keys 40 ref

Taking 14 keys for now

Sale 52

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199000669345#!/compare/1610841600/1611360000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1610755200/1610841600

1.33 ref matches

Sale 53

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1611360000/1611446400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198896598178#!/compare/1600387200/1611878400

Untrace

Item 16

https://backpack.tf/item/4470251849

Sale 54

Sold on MP

Sale 55

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180193807#!/compare/1604966400/1606003200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197968633696#!/compare/1605830400/1606003200

Untrace

Sale 56

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197968633696#!/compare/1606003200/1606089600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197965289319#!/compare/1606262400/1611014400

Untrace

Item 17

https://backpack.tf/item/4219594149

Sale 57

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198240347424#!/compare/1605484800/1605744000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198968934065#!/compare/1605398400/1605657600

Untrace

Sale 58

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198968934065#!/compare/1606348800/1607212800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1607126400/1607212800

Showstopper Taunt: The Fubar Fanfare matches

Item trades with qs.store should be watched carefully

Excluding

Sale 59

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1607385600/1607472000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198971591168#!/compare/1606867200/1607644800

Seems to have sold for:

Stormy Storm Hot Dogger

5 keys in adds

No buyout but it would probably have capped by buy orders since Hot Dogger has 14 key buy orders

Sale 60

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198971591168#!/compare/1607644800/1607990400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1607558400/1607644800

Endothermic Exowear matches

Untrace

Sale 61

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1607644800/1607731200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199024195732#!/compare/1607558400/1607817600

Untrace

Sale 62

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199024195732#!/compare/1608854400/1609286400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1608768000/1608854400

Untrace

Sale 63

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1609113600/1609200000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872480703#!/compare/1607126400/1609718400

Bulk

https://prnt.sc/zdp8qk - those matched.

Burning Flames Brass Bucket

Midnight Whirlwind Taunt: Panzer Pants

Steaming Deep Cover Operator

Sale 64

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198872480703#!/compare/1611619200/1612310400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261884457#!/compare/1611187200/1612224000

Untrace

Sale 65

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261884457#!/compare/1612396800/1612828800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198362915001#!/compare/1612742400/1612828800

Untrace

Sale 66

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198362915001#!/compare/1612915200/1613088000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198207549307#!/compare/1612915200/1613088000

Untrace

14 keys do leave buyers inventory though

Marketplace sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30658;5;u95

Nov 16th - $31.3 / $1.77 = 17.68 keys

Nov 22nd - $24.05 / $1.75 = 13.74 keys

Nov 23rd - $28.71 / $1.75 = 16.41 keys

Nov 27th - $26 / $1.76 = 14.77 keys

Nov 27th - $28.95 / $1.76 = 16.45 keys

Dec 3rd - $29.2 / $1.76 = 16.59 keys

Dec 4th - $30 / $1.76 = 17.05 keys

Dec 7th - $30 / $1.76 = 17.05 keys

Dec 12th - $30 / $1.89 = 15.87 keys

Dec 13th - $31.95 / $1.92 = 16.64 keys

Dec 13th - $30 / $1.92 = 15.63 keys

Jan 8th - $29.99 / $2.12 = 14.15 keys

Feb 12th - $35.99 / $2.16 = 16.66 keys

Mannco sales

https://mannco.store/item/12478

Dec 26h - $29.99 / $1.79 = 16.75 keys

Working out avg key price

Dec 23rd - 1.68

Dec 24th - 1.72

Dec 25th - 1.8

Dec 26th - 1.81

Dec 27th - 1.81

Dec 28th - 1.81

Dec 29th - 1.87

Avg key price is $12.50 / 7 = 1.786

Taking $1.79 as avg key price

Sales

5, 16, 10, 16, 15, 14, 13, 16, 13, 13, 14, 18, 14, 16, 15, 16, 17, 17, 17, 16, 17, 16, 14, 17, 17

Sales but ordered

5, 10, 13, 13, 13, 14, 14, 14, 14, 15, 15, 16, 16, 16, 16, 16, 16, 16, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 18

Current Listings

https://prnt.sc/zdqb20

3 sellers at ~16 keys

Buyers at 13.61 keys

Concluding thoughts

All of the 17 key sales are marketplace and I don't really want to exclude them all.

18 can be considered high given the 3 sellers for 16 keys, though they are all new sellers.

https://gladiator.tf/listings/601f2ad523fccfaabaece466

https://gladiator.tf/listings/601f8249cb54403f6fd45a6b

https://gladiator.tf/listings/601fb62086bdb982abade2b9

https://gladiator.tf/listings/601ffe5906ea53f7a30b3f93

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60203ea2fedbfbd7c443966d

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60207722c5e7c5089a5ca4b5

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6020b03d11058c72e8fd78ac

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6020c4557413c075dfe544fb

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6020f34b27d7d6eb6fad15de

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6020fa8f9f1d6cd1f1ae7ec2

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6021273bc216c3f44c86711f

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60215550a4cf2dde919fc3cb

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6021f387925b23f77c6ff93d

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60225ba71ad7dede688d13cb

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6022f230b7d74eee38187e51

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6023435953eaabe1e32db707

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6023a7c509097020872c27a3

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6023f58c7b2adf10abfd5ffa

https://gladiator.tf/listings/602448c38a3a5f0fca878a18

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60248e053e9f94d82b9c394e

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6024af063c33b92081dda9bb

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6024c8fdb462c074377da5f3

https://gladiator.tf/listings/602507a74c3cad39bb2d6c9e

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60257d2d6fbe20e4bb989474

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6025d89bc7dcca3b2676c4cb

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6025e37ac7dcca3b2677a14d

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6025f1260e00044e0407d04d

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6026157292eac017fa86d21e

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60265b6923e5fdf84ea77996

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60269862649be4b103827983

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6026cbefa85bb070e0913703

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6026ed71e167a00953355657

https://gladiator.tf/listings/602723db8c85480aefd5e35c

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6027622fff9bc138f95a3d8d

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60278d38072a86a7e2985d88

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6027eb35f95222b6c863251e

It would appear the general trend in this past week is actually market value at ~16 keys.

Given this information, I think I will range this at 14 - 17 keys, the mean value ends up at what the lowest seller was at some point in the past week and includes as many sales above buyers and marketplace sales as well.

Taking 14 - 17 keys here

Any and all criticism is appreciated!