And then there was one

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/9747205766

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198216554179#!/compare/1611532800/1612224000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198301528689#!/compare/1612396800/1612396800

Untrace

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198301528689#!/compare/1612396800/1612396800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195933333#!/compare/1612310400/1612396800

Untrace

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195933333#!/compare/1613088000/1613174400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102407070#!/compare/1613088000/1613174400

Untrace

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/9713479173

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059457068#!/compare/1610496000/1612396800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198846789568#!/compare/1610928000/1611014400

Untrace

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198846789568#!/compare/1611100800/1611187200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198867331359#!/compare/1611187200/1611273600

5 keys 29.44 ref matches

All 10 keys match from buyers inventory

Taking 11 keys here

Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/9695542152

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076259234#!/compare/1611014400/1611100800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198299987891#!/compare/1606608000/1611014400

11 keys?

Item 4

https://backpack.tf/item/9517376397

Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198382426111#!/compare/1608508800/1608595200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198396945561#!/compare/1608595200/1608681600

Untrace

Sale 8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198396945561#!/compare/1608508800/1608595200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285660303#!/compare/1607817600/1608595200

Untrace

Sale 9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198285660303#!/compare/1608595200/1608681600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195933333#!/compare/1608595200/1608681600

Sold for 9 keys 25 ref

Taking 9.5 keys here

Sale 10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198195933333#!/compare/1608681600/1608768000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280336253#!/compare/1559174400/1609804800

Untrace

Sale 11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198280336253#!/compare/1609977600/1610409600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101442624#!/compare/1609977600/1610064000

Untrace

Sale 12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101442624#!/compare/1610668800/1610841600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199098870535#!/compare/1610668800/1610755200

Untrace

Sale 13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199098870535#!/compare/1611014400/1611100800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198363248386#!/compare/1602028800/1613001600

Untrace

Item 5

https://backpack.tf/item/9214203155

Sale 14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170858641#!/compare/1610582400/1611360000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198186922501#!/compare/1610496000/1610582400

Sold for:

Toxic Terrors Taunt: The Trackman's Touchdown

Seems low, or missing, excluding

Sale 15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198186922501#!/compare/1610582400/1610668800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096868014#!/compare/1610582400/1610668800

Sold for 10 keys

Item 6

https://backpack.tf/item/8571816852

Sale 16

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140870596#!/compare/1606608000/1606694400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199098694108#!/compare/1606521600/1606608000

3 keys 19 ref matches

Sale 17

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199098694108#!/compare/1606780800/1606867200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198237113546#!/compare/1606780800/1606867200

Sold for 11 keys

Sale 18

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198237113546#!/compare/1608249600/1608422400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1608336000/1608422400

6.11 ref matches

Sale 19

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1609372800/1609459200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199012781643#!/compare/1588118400/1610064000

SCM

Sale 20

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199012781643#!/compare/1610064000/1611273600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198960179828#!/compare/1610150400/1612828800

Untrace

Item 7

https://backpack.tf/item/8120043079

Sale 21

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198224159528#!/compare/1612051200/1612137600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139370347#!/compare/1612051200/1612137600

Sold for 11 keys 3 ref

Taking 11 keys

Sale 22

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139370347#!/compare/1612310400/1612396800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142791097#!/compare/1612396800/1612742400

Untrace

Item 8

https://backpack.tf/item/8118290670

Sale 23

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198411572186#!/compare/1612137600/1612396800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199108224220#!/compare/1612310400/1612396800

Scammed

Sale 24

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199108224220#!/compare/1612396800/1612569600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1612310400/1612396800

Untrace

Item 9

https://backpack.tf/item/7969707813

Sale 25

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199037945117#!/compare/1610928000/1611446400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199057621194#!/compare/1611273600/1612742400

SCM

Sale 26

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199057621194#!/compare/1611964800/1612137600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1611878400/1611964800

Untrace

Item 10

https://backpack.tf/item/7667999984

Sale 27

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198376014891#!/compare/1605484800/1605657600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982126916#!/compare/1605484800/1605571200

Untrace

Sale 28

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982126916#!/compare/1605484800/1605571200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090987063#!/compare/1604966400/1605484800

Untrace

Sale 29

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090987063#!/compare/1605484800/1605571200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037674114#!/compare/1605398400/1605571200

Untrace

Item 11

https://backpack.tf/item/7591903005

Sale 30

Sold on Mannco

Item 12

https://backpack.tf/item/7488368794

Sale 31

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198260000074#!/compare/1606262400/1607040000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121883901#!/compare/1605398400/1609113600

Sold for 10 keys

Item 13

https://backpack.tf/item/7447561494

Sale 32

Sold on Mannco

Sale 33

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198329725849#!/compare/1610323200/1610496000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013011182#!/compare/1610323200/1610409600

Sold for 9 keys 27 ref

Taking 9.5 keys

Sale 34

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013011182#!/compare/1610409600/1610496000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088544779#!/compare/1608336000/1610668800

Bulk for Smoking Hawk Warrior

Sale 35

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088544779#!/compare/1610668800/1611360000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271502853#!/compare/1584576000/1611619200

SCM

Sale 36

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271502853#!/compare/1611619200/1612569600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199100160026#!/compare/1612483200/1612656000

Untrace

Item 14

https://backpack.tf/item/7139550963

Sale 37

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198341573020#!/compare/1608940800/1612396800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1608854400/1608940800

Untrace

Sale 38

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1612224000/1612310400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057368586#!/compare/1612224000/1612310400

Untrace

Sale 39

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057368586#!/compare/1612742400/1612828800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1612742400/1612828800

Sold for 11 keys 45.33 ref

Taking 12 keys

Item 15

https://backpack.tf/item/7003687630

Sale 40

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081545422#!/compare/1609891200/1609977600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202476873#!/compare/1609632000/1610150400

Untrace

Sale 41

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202476873#!/compare/1610236800/1610668800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101442624#!/compare/1610150400/1610236800

Sold for 10 keys

Sale 42

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101442624#!/compare/1610668800/1610841600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198799297906#!/compare/1608768000/1610928000

Untrace

Item 16

https://backpack.tf/item/4929488295

Sale 43

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188093413#!/compare/1612137600/1612224000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1612137600/1612224000

Untrace

Sale 44

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1612137600/1612224000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198391163702#!/compare/1611878400/1612742400

Untrace

Sale 45

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198391163702#!/compare/1612742400/1613001600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1612915200/1613001600

Untrace

Item 17

https://backpack.tf/item/4811020621

Sale 46

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198396115136#!/compare/1606262400/1607385600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1606176000/1606262400

Untrace

Sale 47

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1609286400/1609372800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199048220612#!/compare/1591747200/1610064000

Untrace

Sale 48

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199048220612#!/compare/1591747200/1610064000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199107022130#!/compare/1609977600/1610064000

Untrace

Sale 49

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199107022130#!/compare/1610150400/1610323200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102484730#!/compare/1610150400/1610323200

Untrace

Sale 50

Sold on Mannco

Item 18

https://backpack.tf/item/4242281975

Sale 51

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198173140921#!/compare/1608422400/1610150400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310707400#!/compare/1608768000/1613174400

Untrace

Sale 52

Excluding loot.farm trades

Sale 53

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198294649667#!/compare/1611705600/1612224000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102407070#!/compare/1612137600/1612224000

Sold for 11 keys 0.22 ref

Taking 11 keys

Sale 54

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102407070#!/compare/1612224000/1612310400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057368586#!/compare/1612224000/1612310400

Sold for 12 keys

Item 19

https://backpack.tf/item/4217320028

Sale 55

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198274006629#!/compare/1608681600/1609200000

Bulk bp buy

Sale 56

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198177872379#!/compare/1609891200/1609977600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1609891200/1609977600

27 ref matches

Sale 57

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1609977600/1610064000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198386195044#!/compare/1609977600/1610064000

34 ref matches

Sale 58

Excluding loot.farm

Sale 59

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163609625#!/compare/1611273600/1611360000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197969553134#!/compare/1610496000/1611446400

Untrace

Sale 60

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197969553134#!/compare/1612396800/1612483200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198015930489#!/compare/1612483200/1612569600

Untrace

Sale 61

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198015930489#!/compare/1612396800/1612483200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198173442901#!/compare/1612396800/1612483200

Sold alongside:

Circling Heart Mann-O-War

for

Miami Nights Desert Marauder

Use on Desert Marauder

Sale 62

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198173442901#!/compare/1612483200/1612569600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198121927606#!/compare/1612396800/1612483200

Sold for 11 keys

Item 20

https://backpack.tf/item/4200315359

Sale 63

Sold on MP

Marketplace sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30658;5;u97

Nov 23rd - $21.98 / $1.75 = 12.56 keys

Dec 3rd - $21.98 / $1.76 = 12.49 keys

Dec 5th - $21.98 / $1.76 = 12.49 keys

Dec 5th - $21.98 / $1.76 = 12.49 keys

Dec 6th - $21.98 / $1.76 = 12.49 keys

Dec 8th - $21.98 / $1.76 = 12.49 keys

Dec 14th - $25 / $1.96 = 12.76 keys

Jan 22nd - $27.99 / $2.10 = 13.33 keys

Feb 7th - $28.99 / $2.13 = 13.61 keys

Mannco sales

https://mannco.store/item/9589

Dec 25th - $19.98 / $1.76 = 11.35 keys

Dec 27th - $19.98 / $1.81 = 11.04 keys

Jan 7th - $19.98 / $1.85 = 10.8 keys

Jan 16th - $19.98 / $1.86 = 10.74 keys

Avg key price for Dec 25th:

Dec 22nd - 1.67

Dec 23rd - 1.68

Dec 24th - 1.72

Dec 25th - 1.8

Dec 26th - 1.81

Dec 27th - 1.81

Dec 28th - 1.81

Avg key price for Dev 25th - $12.3 / 7 = $1.76

Avg key price for Dec 27th:

Dec 24th - 1.72

Dec 25th - 1.8

Dec 26th - 1.81

Dec 27th - 1.81

Dec 28th - 1.81

Dec 29th - 1.87

Dec 30th - 1.83

Avg key price for Dec 27th - $12.65 / 7 = $1.81

Avg key price for Jan 7th:

Jan 4th - 1.87

Jan 5th - 1.87

Jan 6th - 1.84

Jan 7th - 1.84

Jan 8th - 1.86

Jan 9th - 1.86

Jan 10th - 1.84

Avg key price for Jan 7th - $12.98 / 7 = $1.85

Avg key price for Jan 16th:

Jan 13th - 1.86

Jan 14th - 1.86

Jan 15th - 1.86

Jan 16th - 1.86

Jan 17th - 1.86

Jan 18th - 1.87

Jan 19th - 1.88

Avg key price for Jan 16th - $13.05 / 7 = $1.86

Sales

11, 11, 9.5, 10, 11, 11, 10, 9.5, 12, 10, 11, 12, 11, 13, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 13, 13, 14, 11, 11, 11, 11

Sales but ordered

9.5, 9.5, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 13, 13, 13, 14

Current Listings

https://prnt.sc/zeodst

Sellers at 13.5 keys

Buyers at 12.1 keys

Concluding thoughts

The clear common trading point is 11 - 12 keys, which is conveniently under buy orders as of current.

https://gladiator.tf/listings/601dd3bb01fce7b445131b1a

https://gladiator.tf/listings/601f2ad5a67173a23d94c97d

https://gladiator.tf/listings/602077236c5863f37262babe

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60215550d81c2a457b3d75ea

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6022f2330e19ad728061da8d

https://gladiator.tf/listings/602448c5f3ffd7f807b2a78b

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60257d3007e01e3496240e4c

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6026ed77e167a009533556fe

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60284456f989603baa2cd891

Buyers have been at 11 keys 40 ref since last week

Sellers have been at ~14 keys, and reducing since last week

Hmm, I guess I would probably go 11 - 13 keys here, despite the mean being under buyers

Going with that, thanks Xerg for the vote of confidence!