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https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Crawlspace%20Critters%20War%20Paint%20%28Field-Tested%29
$107.98 / $1.53 = 52.93 keys
Price of keys: $0.04 * 51 ref = $2.04
Let me know if my math is wrong
You should be using the median key price of Steam Community Market keys of the day they sold and not the price in ref multiplied by 0.04.
You also need to show proof that the sale you're using is for this effect
+ not cherry-picking the most expansive sale among SCM ones (prolly sold for another effect)
+ Last suggestion still in-date