Study

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/7957269683

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198258439265#!/compare/1610064000/1611014400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199057255328#!/compare/1610928000/1611014400

Scammed

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199057255328#!/compare/1611014400/1611100800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1611014400/1611100800

Buy order dump, also scammer

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/7956523289

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199004803157#!/compare/1610928000/1611014400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180408222#!/compare/1610668800/1611014400

Sold for 8 keys

Marketplace sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30416;5;u61

Jan 18th - $29.99 / $2.11 = 14.21 keys

Sales

8, 14

Taking 8 flat

aj edit:

Hidden History, apologies

https://backpack.tf/item/7957111761

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1608163200/1608249600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198167488304#!/compare/1608163200/1608249600

Sold for 9 keys 4.44 ref

https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Miami+Nights+Employee+of+the+Mmmph - about matches

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198167488304#!/compare/1608249600/1608336000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1608249600/1608336000

Untrace, sold back for presumably, lower

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1609804800/1609891200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096309056#!/compare/1609804800/1609891200

Sold for 9 keys

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096309056#!/compare/1609804800/1609891200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1609804800/1609891200

15.77 ref matches

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1609891200/1609977600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156255538#!/compare/1609891200/1609977600

1 key matches

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156255538#!/compare/1609977600/1610064000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1609891200/1609977600

Untrace, tradeback

Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1611273600/1611360000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1611273600/1611360000

Bulk, untrace

So what we have are 2 more sales at 9 keys

Now, I could refresh this at 8 - 9 keys but the thing is, 9 keys keeps getting dumped again for way lower so I really don't think that's a fair value to include

Discuss in the comments, criticism is always appreciated :D

Thanks Xerg:

New mp sale at $29.99, I also bought one for 9 keys recently. Sale 5 was likely 7.5 https://gladiator.tf/listings/5ff638cccaf4486c2204e45b

I would include 9, I guess 8 - 9 could work

Taking 8 – 9 keys, guess my previous logic lined up, thanks Xerg again