88 in existence

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/9217136215

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198205685593#!/compare/1608854400/1609286400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144477377#!/compare/1608854400/1608940800

I would like to say 34 keys match, since 34 keys leave buyers inventory

https://gladiator.tf/listings/5fe66b6f447ca71a8482a3ad - buyout 34 keys

Saved, taking 34 keys here

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/9190229188

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170217781#!/compare/1606694400/1607040000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198986747837#!/compare/1606780800/1606867200

This is all gambling

Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198419584303#!/compare/1608249600/1608336000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127007152#!/compare/1608249600/1609200000

Untrace

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127007152#!/compare/1608249600/1609200000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054557836#!/compare/1608163200/1608249600

Untrace

Note: The reason why I did the last few trades in that history and not the rest is because, well, gamblers have to cash out eventually so I was looking for a pure trade of sorts

Unfortunately, that was not the case and it was just more gambling

Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/9122361619

Sale 5

MP

Item 4

https://backpack.tf/item/9106193947

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198209640976#!/compare/1607126400/1607212800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156255538#!/compare/1607212800/1607299200

7 keys match

Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156255538#!/compare/1607299200/1607385600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199106217370#!/compare/1607212800/1607299200

37 keys 0.88 ref matches

Sale 8

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199106217370#!/compare/1608336000/1608422400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271982139#!/compare/1608336000/1608422400

1 key matches

Sale 9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198271982139#!/compare/1608595200/1608681600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1608595200/1608681600

0.33 ref matches

Sale 10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135388328#!/compare/1608595200/1608681600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198186261565#!/compare/1608595200/1608681600

28 keys 0.33 ref matches

Sale 11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198186261565#!/compare/1609372800/1609545600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198399420032#!/compare/1609459200/1609545600

Sold for 31 keys

Sale 12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198399420032#!/compare/1609718400/1609977600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1609891200/1609977600

0.11 ref matches

Sale 13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1609891200/1609977600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197970770340#!/compare/1609977600/1610150400

39 keys 46 ref matches

https://gladiator.tf/listings/5ff75ab479ce8d32be9274aa - 39 keys 49.11 ref buyout

Taking 40 keys here

Item 5

https://backpack.tf/item/9072323160

Sale 14

Off and on alt

Sale 15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198359779027#!/compare/1613088000/1613174400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198888086377#!/compare/1612828800/1613174400

Untrace

Item 6

https://backpack.tf/item/9040749604

Sale 16

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062420532#!/compare/1609286400/1609632000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198989798211#!/compare/1607990400/1609891200

Untrace

Sale 17

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198989798211#!/compare/1610150400/1612483200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198006680272#!/compare/1610064000/1611100800

Untrace

Item 7

https://backpack.tf/item/8927527766

Sale 18

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153667096#!/compare/1613001600/1613260800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1613174400/1613260800

18 keys match

Sale 19

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1613520000/1613606400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021458180#!/compare/1613433600/1613692800

Untrace, probably keys but I'm not sure how many given that 49 keys leave buyers inventory

Item 8

https://backpack.tf/item/8863029841

Sale 20

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065870487#!/compare/1608249600/1612915200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188093413#!/compare/1608163200/1608249600

Untrace

Sale 21

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188093413#!/compare/1612828800/1612915200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013039087#!/compare/1611100800/1613088000

Untrace

Sale 22

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198013039087#!/compare/1611100800/1613088000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051930593#!/compare/1613260800/1613520000

Untrace / auctions

Item, 9

https://backpack.tf/item/8746697714

Sale 23

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198028422102#!/compare/1608854400/1608940800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170217781#!/compare/1608681600/1609113600

Untrace

Sale 24

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170217781#!/compare/1611014400/1611100800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198886850124#!/compare/1611014400/1611100800

Untrace

Sale 25

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198886850124#!/compare/1611014400/1611100800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198986747837#!/compare/1611100800/1611187200

Untrace

Sale 26

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198986747837#!/compare/1611014400/1611100800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157279796#!/compare/1611014400/1611100800

Untrace / gambling

Sale 27

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157279796#!/compare/1611100800/1611187200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061880126#!/compare/1611014400/1611100800

Sold for 35 keys

Sale 28

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061880126#!/compare/1611187200/1611360000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198415564349#!/compare/1611273600/1611360000

Sold for 35 keys

Sale 29

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198415564349#!/compare/1611705600/1611792000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156371568#!/compare/1611705600/1611792000

Bulk

Sale 30

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156371568#!/compare/1611705600/1611792000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198172690987#!/compare/1611792000/1611878400

Untrace

Sale 31

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198172690987#!/compare/1611705600/1611792000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047678060#!/compare/1611705600/1611792000

Untrace

Sale 32

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047678060#!/compare/1612483200/1612828800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063884235#!/compare/1612828800/1612915200

Untrace

Item 10

https://backpack.tf/item/8655197862

Sale 33

Listed on Mannco

Item 11

https://backpack.tf/item/8539296443

Sale 34

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199093430979#!/compare/1606608000/1606780800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102484730#!/compare/1606608000/1606780800

Untrace

Sale 35

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102484730#!/compare/1606608000/1606780800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1606694400/1606780800

14 ref matches

Sale 36

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1607472000/1607558400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090987063#!/compare/1607385600/1607558400

Untrace / bulk

Sale 37

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090987063#!/compare/1607558400/1607817600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198870242954#!/compare/1607472000/1607558400

Untrace

Sale 38

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198870242954#!/compare/1607472000/1607558400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198419584303#!/compare/1607472000/1607558400

Untrace

Sale 39

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198419584303#!/compare/1607472000/1607558400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071478202#!/compare/1607472000/1607558400

Untrace / gambling

Sale 40

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071478202#!/compare/1607472000/1607558400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198986747837#!/compare/1607472000/1607558400

Untrace / gambling

Sale 41

Next few sales are also gambling

Excluding

Sale 42

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053070636#!/compare/1607644800/1607731200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198418740133#!/compare/1607644800/1607731200

Bulk for Circling Heart Law

Sale 43

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198418740133#!/compare/1609718400/1610064000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083529516#!/compare/1609977600/1610064000

Sold for 44 keys

Sale 44

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083529516#!/compare/1610668800/1610755200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045916153#!/compare/1610668800/1610755200

Untrace

Sale 45

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045916153#!/compare/1610668800/1610755200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095386040#!/compare/1514592000/1612310400

Untrace

Item 12

https://backpack.tf/item/8500546281

Sale 46

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069286674#!/compare/1607558400/1607644800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198164651434#!/compare/1607472000/1607558400

Untrace / SCM

Sale 47

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198164651434#!/compare/1609891200/1609977600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116000378#!/compare/1609891200/1609977600

Sold for 40 keys

Item 13

https://backpack.tf/item/8473272333

Sale 48

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044994726#!/compare/1610496000/1610668800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198809836021#!/compare/1610582400/1610668800

Sold for:

Strange Professional Killstreak Festive Scattergun - https://gladiator.tf/listings/6000d520710f2fba6b384590 - 37 keys

Strange Shoestring Santa - https://gladiator.tf/listings/6000d2c602dc905d7e8d1a40 - 15 ref

6 keys

37 + 6 = 43 keys

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6000d51bff01ac8bd7c00872 - buyout 44 keys

Taking 43 keys here

Sale 49

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198809836021#!/compare/1611014400/1611100800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316071886#!/compare/1610928000/1611014400

Circling Peace Sign Brain Bucket seems to match, rest untrace

Sale 50

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316071886#!/compare/1613865600/1614038400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066220061#!/compare/1613865600/1613952000

3 keys match

Sale 51

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066220061#!/compare/1614297600/1614384000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198183343890#!/compare/1614297600/1614384000

Bulk for Starstorm Slumber Cotton Head

Using there

Sale 52

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198183343890#!/compare/1614297600/1614384000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1614297600/1614384000

14.55 ref match

Item 14

https://backpack.tf/item/8346284254

Sale 53

Got dumped to my buy order at the time and I ended up selling to tftrade.ru so can't really use that sale

Screenshots:

https://prnt.sc/108rhkf - paid 38 keys

https://prnt.sc/108renb - technically sold for close to 44/45 keys, so it will support the range here hopefully

Sale 54

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050518375#!/compare/1608768000/1608854400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045247804#!/compare/1608249600/1609113600

Untrace

Marketplace sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31085;5;u134

Dec 18th - $85 / $2.01 = 42.29 keys

Jan 14th - $84.99 / $2.12 = 40.09 keys

Feb 5th - $88.99 / $2.11 = 42.18 keys

Feb 23rd - $88.99 / $2.13 = 41.78 keys

Sales

34, 37, 28, 31, 40, 35, 35, 44, 40, 43, 38, 42, 40, 42, 42

Sales but ordered

28, 31, 34, 35, 35, 37, 38, 40, 40, 40, 42, 42, 42, 43, 44

Current Listings

https://prnt.sc/108rktv

Recent at 40 keys

Seller at 42 keys

20 days at 45 keys

Buyers at 37 keys

Trend over the past 2 weeks

https://gladiator.tf/listings/602845ed7743df74fcbe9d8f

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6029a0de9d33de47b9e939e1

https://gladiator.tf/listings/602b042e9395f1daa88359bf

https://gladiator.tf/listings/602c4daeca112f8442e566e2

https://gladiator.tf/listings/602da0691de8a3fda16a4afd

https://gladiator.tf/listings/602edb5d71256687661e9cda

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6030417145f0bc17fdb9ab22

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60316a702796936f3099a4e3

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6032e37d926e2b2917f2b577

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6034361b4d7451e6970b0d30

https://gladiator.tf/listings/603565c14ee8463ff5d5960d

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6036e2d9ea0bd3da077c1a31

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60383798c410892a01141d05

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6039826806f4a63cb29d5858

https://gladiator.tf/listings/603a62f422f33a3ded0bb2a6

It would appear that sellers at 42 keys appeared about 2 weeks ago

And buyers have been above 37 keys for that entire duration

Given that, I'm inclined to exclude all the sales below 37 keys and run with a tighter range here of 38 - 42 keys here