$3.95
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Redoing the SCM sales by multiplying by a factor of 1 + ((1 / 1.15) / 0.85) as my math was incomplete last time around. You can't go from 1.15 to 1 by multiplying by 0.85, so I have to multiply all my numbers by the accurate factor. Everything else was good tho, also including a ~*new sale not in old suggestion*~ in this proper suggestion.
NEEDS an update
https://youtu.be/-E6ljLSOkbY
mp.tf: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/542;1
Jan. 17, 2021: 4.88/2.1 = 2.323 keys
Dec. 3, 2020: 8.9/ 1.77 = 5.028 keys (major outlier)
Nov. 8: 4.88/ 1.81 (based on https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-11-08&site=marketplace.tf (https://prnt.sc/109wjsw) = 2.696 keys
Sep. 25: 4.88/ 1.85 (based on https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-09-25&site=marketplace.tf (https://prnt.sc/109whwv) = 2.638 keys
Sep. 10: 4.5/ 1.86 (based on https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-09-15&site=marketplace.tf (https://prnt.sc/109wg6f), all previous sales will also use this price due to it being the oldest available data) = 2.419
Jul. 29: 4.87 = 2.618 keys
3 sales (Jul. 5, 13 & 27) all at 3.9 = 2.097
Jun. 19 & May 31: 4.88 = 2.624
May 24: 4.93 = 2.651
Ignoring sales before this date due to being old and unsupported by recent sales
SCM: https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Genuine%20Noise%20Maker%20-%20Vuvuzela
Doing the same math as above, but multiplying sale price by 0.85 before dividing by that day's key sale average as found on https://steamcommunity.com/market/pricehistory/?country=x¤cy=x&appid=440&market_hash_name=Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key and then correcting as stated above.
Current lowest sell order on date of suggestion: 1.927 keys
Current highest buy order on date of suggestion: 1.450 keys
Mar. 2: 1.927 keys
Feb. 27: 1.927, 1.882, 2.431 keys
Feb. 26: 1.759 keys
Feb. 23: 1.753
Feb. 18: 1.807
Feb. 17: 1.414
Feb. 16: 1.435
Feb. 14: 1.990
Feb. 12: 1.960
Feb. 10: 1.382
Feb. 2: 1.398
Jan. 31: 1.729
Jan. 29: 1.759
Mannco.store sales:
Jan. 6, 2021: 3.31/ 1.84 = 1.799 keys
Jan. 1: 3.31/ 1.86 = 1.780
Sep. 9, 2020: 3.31/ 1.61 (based on oldest displaying data from Nov. 28, 2020 https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-11-28&site=mannco.store (https://prnt.sc/109wykr)) = 2.056
All Key Values of Sales, lowest to highest:
1.362
1.367
1.382
1.398
1.414
1.435
1.729
1.753
1.759
1.759
1.780
1.799
1.807
1.882
1.927
1.927
1.960
1.990
2.056
2.097
2.097
2.097
2.323
2.419
2.431
2.618
2.624
2.624
2.638
2.651
2.696
5.028
Key value of Lowest 5 Sales = 1.362, 1.367, 1.382, 1.435, 1.729, removing 1.435 and below as quicksale outliers
Key value of Highest 5 Sales = 5.028, 2.696, 2.651, 2.638, 2.624, removing 5.028 as outlier
Median sale value(s) of remaining sales: 2.056
Mean sale value: 2.166 (without outliers), 2.158 (with outliers)
Mode sale value: 2.097
As 2.215 keys is the average of the lowest supported sale (1.73) and the highest supported sale (2.7), as well as aligning very nicely with all relevant medians, modes and means, I am confident that 1.75(rounded for DA RULES) - 2.7 keys, while a broad range for this price point, is a fair and well supported range.
You shouldn't be bothering with data that's too old to be valid and I don't get why you're adding all these extra steps into the calculations.
The previous accepted suggestion is HOW old, again?
You can see that for yourself I assume, but it's irrelevant anyways.
For Non-Unusuals you shouldn't really use anything past 2 months old (1 month if the item is commonly trade)
The previous accepted suggestion is 4 YEARS old.
You could've just used the more recent data when determining your suggested price. There is no good reason to drag up such old data.
Makes sense, but kind of unlikely to go through because people die when they see scm sales
The high end is based on a sale from november. SCM sales being used as proof is not the reason this won't go through...
Besides, there's the issue of differentiating what had full uses and what didn't since there are so many sales. The low end can't be based on sales of partially used ones. Although, on that point, it could just be considered 'better than current'. But eh, dead prospect anyways due to way-too-old data.
The one I did with improper math had an 85% positive rate before I closed it to redo my math.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1614729600/1614816000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044130442#!/compare/1614729600/1614816000 - 25 use sold for 2 keys
there is also currently a 25 use one for sale on scm at 2.15~ keys.
given this and that the majority of the higher sales are all months outdated and there is no way of telling how many uses the ones that sold had, i would just go 2 keys flat here using the confirmed 25 use sale
Doesn't MP only allow 25 use listings?