Study

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/7956834647

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138277266#!/compare/1609027200/1609286400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198986591545#!/compare/1609200000/1609286400

Seems to have sold for 11 keys

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198986591545#!/compare/1609459200/1609545600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198993873071#!/compare/1609545600/1609632000

Untrace, tftrade.ru stuff

Sale 3

Untrace, bought off tftrade.ru then sold to Erik

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/7956767629

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198391942981#!/compare/1609891200/1609977600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142864294#!/compare/1609891200/1609977600

Untrace

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142864294#!/compare/1609977600/1610064000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198413395970#!/compare/1609977600/1610064000

Sold alongside:

36.33 ref

for

Bubbling Stout Shako - https://backpack.tf/suggestion/601439b201b3667ddf645016 - 9 keys

3 keys

9 + 3 - 0.6 = 11.4 keys

Rounding down to 11 keys here

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198413395970#!/compare/1610064000/1610496000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199089297693#!/compare/1610928000/1611705600

Untrace

Marketplace sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/98;5;u56

Dec 3rd - $29.99 / $1.76 = 17.04 keys

Dec 27th - $39.99 / $2.17 = 18.43 keys

Sales

11, 11, 17, 18

https://imgur.com/a/Fl1SZ5J

Thanks Blaze:

11 seems pretty low now with buyers at 14-15 atm

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/98;5;u56 - new sale at $39.99 (19 keys)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102407070#!/compare/1612828800/1612915200

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6022e9a93f09bce1a3bbad58 - likely sold to Erik for 14 keys

14 - 19 keys would probably be better here

Taking 14 – 19 keys here