Huge thanks to AJ for letting me use this

Hullo, you didn't have any other sales

So here they are

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/9897176665

Sale 1

Bot owner to bot

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/9726463936

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198164041004#!/compare/1611532800/1611619200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198358675252#!/compare/1611532800/1611619200

Untrace, qsold to bot buy order then keys used to unbox further

Sale 3

Mannco

Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/9267470526

Sale 4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198211044856#!/compare/1608163200/1608768000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071379867#!/compare/1607731200/1608595200

Untrace

Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071379867#!/compare/1610668800/1614902400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1610582400/1610668800

Bulk for Green Black Hole Glengarry Bonnet

Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1614211200/1614297600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198172690987#!/compare/1614211200/1614297600

Untrace

Sale 7

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198172690987#!/compare/1615161600/1615248000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199049789825#!/compare/1615248000/1615334400

Your purchase off scrap for ~17.7k according to you

Taking 18 keys here

Item 4

https://backpack.tf/item/9267272855

Sale 8

MP

Sale 9

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060826484#!/compare/1608163200/1608508800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048792033#!/compare/1608422400/1608508800

Untrace

Sale 10

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048792033#!/compare/1608595200/1608681600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316875234#!/compare/1608768000/1609113600

SCM

Sale 11

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316875234#!/compare/1609113600/1609718400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198197284226#!/compare/1589760000/1611014400

Untrace

Item 5

https://backpack.tf/item/9260746171

Sale 12

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198146297105#!/compare/1609027200/1611100800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198186922501#!/compare/1611014400/1611100800

Bulk for Molten Mallard Bomber's Bucket Hat

Sale 13

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198186922501#!/compare/1611705600/1611792000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199069692074#!/compare/1611619200/1611792000

Untrace

Sale 14

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199069692074#!/compare/1612310400/1612396800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156255538#!/compare/1612310400/1612396800

Sold for 19 keys

Item 6

https://backpack.tf/item/9256963195

Sale 15

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198023034313#!/compare/1609545600/1610150400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156255538#!/compare/1609459200/1609545600

Sold for 16 keys

Item 7

https://backpack.tf/item/9241655422

Sale 16

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198353502204#!/compare/1607904000/1607990400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097271466#!/compare/1607904000/1607990400

Sold for 15 keys 2 ref

Taking 15 keys

Sale 17

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097271466#!/compare/1607990400/1608076800

Sold for 16 keys, it's one of Erik's histories on Marketplace atm

Item 8

https://backpack.tf/item/9239080783

Sale 18

Excluding sales between scammer alts

[Sale 19

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083134207#!/compare/1612224000/1612310400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198294649667#!/compare/1612224000/1612396800

Sold for 19 keys

Sale 20

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198294649667#!/compare/1612396800/1614124800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1612310400/1612396800

Untrace

Item 9

https://backpack.tf/item/9239015345

Sale 21

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1607990400/1608076800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091502579#!/compare/1607990400/1608076800

Untrace

Item 10

https://backpack.tf/item/9234553323

Sale 22

MP

Sale 23

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198833105317#!/compare/1608076800/1610064000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1607990400/1608076800

Untrace

Sale 24

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199084784906#!/compare/1609718400/1609804800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156255538#!/compare/1609718400/1609804800

Untrace

Item 11

https://backpack.tf/item/9221793825

Sale 25

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147318341#!/compare/1608940800/1609113600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097271466#!/compare/1608854400/1608940800

2 ref matches

Sale 26

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097271466#!/compare/1612137600/1612483200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156255538#!/compare/1612051200/1612137600

Sold for 18 keys

Item 12

https://backpack.tf/item/9217363862

Sale 27

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198313058677#!/compare/1607904000/1608076800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141382684#!/compare/1607990400/1608076800

Untrace

Sale 28

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141382684#!/compare/1608076800/1608163200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105071091#!/compare/1608076800/1608163200

Bulk for DUPED SF TC

Sale 29

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198105071091#!/compare/1608163200/1608249600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057493413#!/compare/1605139200/1612483200

Sold for 20 keys

Item 13

https://backpack.tf/item/9213716074

Sale 30

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197966563795#!/compare/1610755200/1610841600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111017966#!/compare/1612828800/1612828800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111017966#!/compare/1612828800/1612828800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197966563795#!/compare/1612742400/1612828800

Tradeback

Item 14

https://backpack.tf/item/9204151987

Sale 31

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198128553858#!/compare/1612310400/1614643200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188093413#!/compare/1612224000/1612310400

Untrace, likely SCM

Item 15

https://backpack.tf/item/9185079640

Sale 32

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074621665#!/compare/1607904000/1611964800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188093413#!/compare/1607817600/1607904000

Probably SCM

Sale 33

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188093413#!/compare/1612137600/1612224000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198353942289#!/compare/1607904000/1614902400

Untrace

Item 16

https://backpack.tf/item/9177507338

Sale 34

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057034883#!/compare/1608508800/1613174400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035176425#!/compare/1597017600/1614988800

Sold for:

Disco Beat Down Shutterbug

Reindoonicorn Rancher Taunt: The Skating Scorcher

This is probably high

Item 17

https://backpack.tf/item/9176986001

Sale 35

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188093413#!/compare/1610236800/1610323200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198243128080#!/compare/1610323200/1610409600

Untrace

Item 18

https://backpack.tf/item/9171501023

Sale 36

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198188093413#!/compare/1612051200/1612137600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200010261#!/compare/1612051200/1612137600

Untrace

Sale 37

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200010261#!/compare/1612569600/1612656000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119033484#!/compare/1612569600/1612656000

Untrace

Sale 38

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119033484#!/compare/1612656000/1612742400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198295784389#!/compare/1612483200/1612656000

Untrace

Sale 39

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198295784389#!/compare/1613001600/1613088000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089551863#!/compare/1612828800/1613088000

Untrace, I'd like to say 18 keys though

Sale 40

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089551863#!/compare/1613260800/1613347200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1613260800/1613347200

22.22 ref matches

Sale 41

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1613779200/1613865600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197962802715#!/compare/1613865600/1614211200

Untrace

Sale 42

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197962802715#!/compare/1614556800/1614729600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1614470400/1614556800

Untrace

Sale 43

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199111073161#!/compare/1614988800/1615075200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199058977691#!/compare/1615075200/1615161600

https://prnt.sc/10ic89n

This matches and it's way too much

Excluding

Sale 44

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199058977691#!/compare/1615161600/1615334400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198879722456#!/compare/1615161600/1615248000

Instant dumped, 1 scrap matches

Sale 45

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198879722456#!/compare/1615161600/1615248000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102508208#!/compare/1615161600/1615248000

Moved?

Item 19

https://backpack.tf/item/9164225946

Sale 46

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091267840#!/compare/1613260800/1614038400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102508208#!/compare/1613260800/1613347200

Untrace

Item 20

https://backpack.tf/item/9148408541

Sale 47

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198200010261#!/compare/1613779200/1613865600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141054773#!/compare/1613779200/1613865600

Untrace

Marketplace sales

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31109;5;u155

Dec 15th - $49.99 / $2.00 = 25.00 keys

Mar 3rd - $51.99 / $2.17 = 23.96 keys

Mannco sales

https://mannco.store/item/23348

Jan 4th - $44.99 / $1.86 = 24.19 keys

Jan 22nd - $33.95 / $1.88 = 18.06 keys

Jan 30th - $39 / $1.85 = 21.08 keys

Sales

18, 19, 16, 15, 16, 19, 18, 20, 18, 25, 24, 24, 18, 21

Sales but in order

15, 16, 16, 18, 18, 18, 18, 19, 19, 20, 21, 24, 24, 25

Current Listings

https://prnt.sc/10iccs7

Fresh seller at 18 keys, this is you

19 days @ 19 keys

17 days @ 20 keys

Bot selling 2 @ 20 keys

1 month @ 30 keys

Buyers are up to 17.5 keys

https://prnt.sc/10icdmz

MP sellers at ~23/24 up to 28/29 keys

Given the long unsold at 19 keys/20 keys, I am inclined to tighten the range here to 18 - 19 keys

Trend over the past 2 weeks

https://gladiator.tf/listings/603827b75c06be1e8203623b

https://gladiator.tf/listings/603971020c353f91ab249bec

https://gladiator.tf/listings/603a913d011e7c2a486dae7c

https://gladiator.tf/listings/603c29d4eceee2abc1c54d57

https://gladiator.tf/listings/603d68c4e7b7be5459ed6407

https://gladiator.tf/listings/603ec44983f40a2025095d96

https://gladiator.tf/listings/604000dd90942dcad9173888

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60416c125616d8ce34a17f83

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6042a39dabb084b59e2d4b33

https://gladiator.tf/listings/604408295f89e27f7e502370

https://gladiator.tf/listings/604551bdc815f5d402ece347

https://gladiator.tf/listings/60469e9dbf9dc951b356fc58

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6047e0ac7c4f2688f6154740

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6049207c94bd967165a24468

The frequent qs.store listings at ~18.5 keys support my proposed range. Buyers have been over 17 keys more than a month ago https://gladiator.tf/listings/6024eeedb568718cba34e0fb

Gladiator stats

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Kaleidoscope%20Crabe%20de%20Chapeau

4 sales at ~17.5 keys rounding up to 18 keys

Yeah I think 18 - 19 keys is the right call here