History 1: https://backpack.tf/item/5959583565

Tradebacks

Sold on Mannco.Store: https://mannco.store/item/27202

January 10: $11.99/1.85=6.48 ~6.5 keys

History 2: https://backpack.tf/item/4111053488

17 ref matches but the buyer is a known quickbuyer:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198818035498#!/compare/1610150400/1610323200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1610236800/1610323200

4 keys:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198841279602#!/compare/1613088000/1613174400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061402527#!/compare/1613174400/1613260800

Sold to an other quickbuyer:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061402527#!/compare/1615161600/1615248000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197994697258#!/compare/1615075200/1615161600

History 3: https://backpack.tf/item/2870281067

Sold on Marketplace.tf: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1116;5;u3037

December 25: $9.99/2.13=4.69 ~4.7 keys

It was then raffled on Scrap.tf

Gladiator.tf stats show a sale at 4 keys https://imgur.com/gCyD0HC (could be the one above)

Sales at 4, 4.7, 6.5

Seller at 5 has only been there for 3 days (https://backpack.tf/item/4111053488), next seller above is at 8 keys for 5 months (https://backpack.tf/item/2691218351)

Let's go with 4-6.5 for now