Suggestion: Purple Energy Lucky Shot at 72–81 keys

Price Suggestion

~145 keys

p.nrg

41 votes up

15 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was accepted Fri, 26 Mar 21 21:47:38 +0000 by Vijf Kilo Boter (met voetjes).

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

Round 3, suggesting based off proof provided by AJ and range suggested by Foamy.

All proof in prev. suggestion here: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/603d7f6222c10221d6390292#comment-604a8114de22c809bf4ab7ca

This hat has always been the best to pair with the Stash bar none. 0 clipping and the effects all bounce when you do Kazotsky kick.

Disclaimer: this suggestion will need to be redone based on the next PE Lucky to sell for a determinable amount. That said, I am more than comfortable in my decision to give this hat a bump.

Sale 1: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/701;5;u10 - Sep. 6, 2020 sale for $120/ 1.86 per key (https://manic.tf/keyprice/?at=2020-09-15&site=marketplace.tf is the closest day to date of sale that returns something other than a 500 server error page so I'm taking the value of the following week - screenshot: https://prnt.sc/109si0f) = 64 keys

Multiple buy orders all above this value (Highest at time of suggestion is 73 keys 37 ref, highest human buy order is 69 keys)

https://mannco.store/?a=&b=Soldier&c=&d=&e=lucky%20shot&f=DESC&g=&h=11&j=0

https://mannco.store/?a=&b=Soldier&c=&d=&e=lucky%20shot&f=DESC&g=&h=11&j=0 no PE Lucky's have ever sold on mannco

https://gladiator.tf/listings?item=purple+energy+lucky+shot nor on gladiator

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198197292179#!/compare/1604793600/1607472000 no idea what to make of this sale. Has since been bouncing between Beaser and bots.

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/1654674560 -

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141054773#!/compare/1613088000/1613174400 unclear how it got from previous owner (https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198336605191#!/compare/1611705600/1614556800) to current owner

Previous sale of this item: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102451836#!/compare/1613088000/1613174400 yet again, can't make heads or tails of it. Backpack purchase.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068257774#!/compare/1612051200/1614470400 item yet again appears to arrive in and vanish from owner's inventory without a trace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198277847330#!/compare/1609459200/1609718400 what? would guess that cash was involved somehow

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1606867200/1606953600 https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198277847330#!/compare/1606867200/1606953600 definitely cash involved in this trade

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055287127#!/compare/1598832000/1599004800 used with Searing Scot Bonnet (100 keys, highest buy order at 47 keys), Secret Crocleather (90-125, highest buy order at 102 keys), GE Fed Fightin Fedora (currently 38-41 keys with numerous buy orders above the high value of that range) in trade for Nebula Universal Translator (240-269 keys), which would put the Lucky value at (240 to 269 minus 228 to 266) 3-41 keys before factoring in overpay. This looks very much like the Nebula guy got a tidy profit on this trade. Not exactly usable.

All prior sales of this item are older than previous suggestion and will not be used.

Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/3403725399 -

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061779536#!/compare/1598140800/1598745600 where did it come from?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198888086377#!/compare/1598140800/1598745600 where did it go?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136792635#!/compare/1598659200/1598832000 where in the world would it sell for Beams Rack (340 keys, well outdated) and 111 keys???

Cotton Eyed Joe says "I been married long time 'go"

Disregarding this item and it's sales older than the ones listed.

EXTRA PROOF AND CONJECTURE COURTESY OF AJ:

Going in order of how you have presented your sales:

Sale 1 is outdated by now, it is almost 5 months outdated now

Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/1654674560

Most recent sale is from bot to bot owner

The likelihood in Fast Trader's sale is that someone bought it off the bot and then quickly resold it to Strawberry Acai

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068257774#!/compare/1612742400/1612828800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199102451836#!/compare/1612742400/1612828800

Sold for 71 keys 35 ref

https://gladiator.tf/listings/6022f68760525be7e3ac4ea1 - buy orders at the time, dumped to buy order

Taking 72 keys here

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1612656000/1612742400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068257774#!/compare/1612569600/1612742400

Untrace as to what Zol sold for

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198277847330#!/compare/1609459200/1609718400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198337734785#!/compare/1609372800/1609459200

Probably sold to buy order here

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1606867200/1606953600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198277847330#!/compare/1606867200/1606953600

66 keys match here

You seem to be a little confused over the bot sales, quicksell.store bots never sell for cash, they sell for keys more often than not, or item offers.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055287127#!/compare/1598832000/1599004800 - this sale is now outdated, about 5 months outdated

https://backpack.tf/item/3403725399 - all the sales here are outdated too, we take sales in the past 3 months

Additions:

Another item

https://backpack.tf/item/942544263

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059671506#!/compare/1613260800/1613606400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139370347#!/compare/1613174400/1613260800

3 ref matches

Gets moved to marketplace afterwards and is still listed

Conclusions

I'm perplexed where the range has been pulled from. You may not understand how bots work but they must be taken into consideration when making a price suggestion. Based off the sales that you presented, there are no sales other than the outdated marketplace sale at a guesstimate of 64 keys considering the keyprices seem to be a bit broken from before then.

https://prnt.sc/10ab982 - from the page you linked, it states that sales on September 15th are outdated, so with some logic, sales on September 6th would also be considered outdated.

We have sales at 66 keys and 72 keys

Considering buy orders have risen above 72 keys now, it's a bit iffy doing 72 flat since that sale was a dump to a bot buy order.

For now, as you stated, I'd much rather wait for more sales than make a suggestion wildly raising this item.

I have decided to set the low end at the 64 key sale from September (though it may be older than three months, it is a verifiable sale for pure currency that is newer than the previous accepted suggestion) and to set the high end at 74 keys (rounded up from the current highest buy order of 73.8 keys, doing this as one was dumped to a bot for 71 keys 35 ref and the bot owners responded by continuing to allow the bid war to go on).

More new sales (courtesy of AJ):

Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/6755826725

Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198232041512#!/compare/1614643200/1614729600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088707185#!/compare/1614643200/1614729600

45 ref matches, probably to buy order

https://gladiator.tf/listings/603edebe5ce4b1e0a484d2db - 73 keys 45 ref

Taking 74 keys here

Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088707185#!/compare/1614816000/1614902400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049469629#!/compare/1614816000/1614902400